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Journal Article
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-11-29)
We explore the ability of large language models (LLMs) to produce in-sample conditional inflation forecasts during the 2019–23 period. We use a leading LLM (Google AI’s PaLM) to produce distributions of conditional forecasts at different horizons and compare these forecasts to those of a leading source, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that LLM forecasts generate lower mean-squared errors overall in most years and at almost all horizons. LLM forecasts exhibit slower reversion to the 2 percent inflation anchor.
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 12 , Pages 14 pages

The Allocation of Immigrant Talent across Countries: Employment Gaps
Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando; See, Kurt (2022-08-11)
A cross-country analysis found immigrants were more likely than natives to work in fields like food service and less likely to be in fields like engineering.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2019)
An analysis of cross-country data sheds light on the link between finance and economic development.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Trade Linkages in the Shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War
Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-03-29)
Skeptics have raised questions about the future of globalization. Could divisions over the war provide insights into the strength of global trade ties?
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-07-02)
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession
Leibovici, Fernando; Wiczer, David (2023-06-01)
This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 074

Journal Article
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2020-05-28)
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Economic Synopses , Issue 34

Journal Article
International Shipping Costs: Determinants and Outlook
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2022-11-21)
The COVID-19 period saw a huge rise in international shipping costs, but price pressure is likely to ease further as containerships on order are built and delivered.
The Regional Economist

Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-05-12)
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Trade Liberalization and Economic Development
Leibovici, Fernando; Crews, Jonas C. (2018)
This essay investigates the extent to which trade liberalization affects developed and developing countries differently. In particular, we examine whether exports respond differently to changes in trade barriers in rich and poor countries.
Economic Synopses , Issue 13 , Pages 1-2

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