Search Results
Journal Article
Measuring Maritime Disruptions: A Route-Based Index of US Import Exposure
We construct a monthly maritime pressure index that measures US import exposure to disruptions using public trade and vessel-traffic data. The index weights disruptions along shipping routes by the value of imports using those routes, showing which goods are exposed and where they enter the country. It peaked in January 2024, at about five times its 2022–23 average, as the Red Sea disruption coincided with drought restrictions at the Panama Canal. That episode exposed a broad range of nonenergy goods entering mainly through East Coast ports. The 2026 Hormuz disruption was narrower, ...
Working Paper
Firm Exit and Liquidity: Evidence from the Great Recession
This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms with more access to credit. This difference widened substantially in the Great Recession while, in contrast, default rates did not vary much by size, age, or productivity. We identify conditions under which standard models of firms subject to financial frictions ...
Working Paper
Shortages of Critical Goods in a Global Economy
This paper studies shortages of critical goods in an open economy with credit market frictions and the role of trade and industrial policy in mitigating them. We develop a dynamic model with essential and non-essential goods, heterogeneous households and concentrated firm ownership. When global demand for essential goods rises, leverage-dependent borrowing premia lead firms to underinvest, and trade amplifies domestic shortages as producers shift supply toward exports. Calibrated to the U.S. during COVID-19, we show that export taxes, import subsidies and production subsidies can mitigate ...
Journal Article
Trade Liberalization and Economic Development
This essay investigates the extent to which trade liberalization affects developed and developing countries differently. In particular, we examine whether exports respond differently to changes in trade barriers in rich and poor countries.
Journal Article
What Happens When Countries Increase Tariffs?
This essay investigates the potential impact of higher U.S. tariffs on the U.S. economy. To do so, we investigate the evolution of key macroeconomic variables following past episodes of tariff increases across a large number of countries.
Journal Article
Trade Adjusts Gradually After Trade Liberalization
In recent years, the impact of international trade liberalization on economic outcomes such as output, investment, and employment has been at the forefront of political and economic discussions.
Journal Article
How Open to Trade Is the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. had very low tariffs overall in 2016, but there were exceptions.
Journal Article
The Role of Credit in the Exit of Firms Across U.S. Industries During the Great Recession
During the Great Recession, firms in industries with higher shares of delinquent firms were more likely to go out of business.
Journal Article
International Trade and the Dynamics of Manufacturing Activity
Manufacturing exports and production might decline in the near future.
Journal Article
COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession
As the pandemic continues, financially vulnerable firms might be at greater risk of closing.