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Journal Article
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-11-29)
We explore the ability of large language models (LLMs) to produce in-sample conditional inflation forecasts during the 2019–23 period. We use a leading LLM (Google AI’s PaLM) to produce distributions of conditional forecasts at different horizons and compare these forecasts to those of a leading source, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that LLM forecasts generate lower mean-squared errors overall in most years and at almost all horizons. LLM forecasts exhibit slower reversion to the 2 percent inflation anchor.
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 12 , Pages 14 pages

The Allocation of Immigrant Talent across Countries: Employment Gaps
Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando; See, Kurt (2022-08-11)
A cross-country analysis found immigrants were more likely than natives to work in fields like food service and less likely to be in fields like engineering.
On the Economy

Journal Article
International Trade Dependence and Inventory Dynamics
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2023-08-16)
US manufacturers that source their intermediate inputs from abroad have been more likely to increase their inventories in the aftermath of unexpected events and heightened uncertainty.
Economic Synopses , Issue 17 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent in the United States
Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando; See, Kurt (2022-08-03)
Immigrants account for close to 20% of the U.S. labor force, but they often do not have an easy time navigating U.S. labor markets.
Economic Synopses , Issue 23 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
The Increased Tradability of Natural Gas
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2022-12-15)
Technological developments have increased the tradability of natural gas. Researchers Leibovici and Dunn identify potential bottlenecks that may limit growth in this market.
Economic Synopses , Issue 32 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2019)
An analysis of cross-country data sheds light on the link between finance and economic development.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Journal Article
Global Value Chains and U.S. Economic Activity During COVID-19
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando; LaBelle, Jesse (2021-05-05)
We investigate the role of global value chains in the declines of manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. during COVID-19. Specifically, we identify the role of global value chains by exploiting heterogeneity across industries in cross-country sourcing patterns and its interaction with exogenous cross-country variation in the containment policies introduced to combat the virus. We find that global value chains played a significant role in the decline of output and employment across U.S. manufactures. Moreover, we find a modest impact of diversifying or renationalizing global value ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , Pages 271-288

Trade Linkages in the Shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War
Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-03-29)
Skeptics have raised questions about the future of globalization. Could divisions over the war provide insights into the strength of global trade ties?
On the Economy

Journal Article
International Trade Openness and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Cross-Country Data
Leibovici, Fernando (2019)
This article studies the extent to which open economies conduct monetary policy differently from economies that are relatively closed to international trade. I first estimate country-specific Taylor rules for 26 economies, following the approach of Clarida, Gal, and Gertler (1998 and 2000). Then, I examine the extent to which open economies assign systematically different weights to changes in economic outcomes, such as inflation and the output gap, than their closed economy counterparts do. I find that open economies respond less strongly to changes in expected inflation than relatively ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 2 , Pages 93-113

Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-07-02)
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3

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