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Working Paper
Technology, Geopolitics, and Trade
We study how geopolitical shocks reshape innovation through the contractual structure of cross-border technology adoption. Empirically, royalty flows are more sensitive than goods trade to geopolitical distance, especially where intellectual property enforcement is weak. We build a growth-trade model in which political risk raises breach hazards in licensing contracts. Firms reprice royalties but compliant adoption declines, and innovation incentives respond to the joint evolution of price and quantity. Quantitatively, fragmentation reallocates innovation and lowers the balanced-growth path ...
Working Paper
Technology, Geopolitics, and Trade
We study when unilateral export controls are optimal by quantifying how geopolitical rivalry reshapes trade in ideas. Empirically, cross-border technology flows are far more sensitive than goods trade to geopolitical distance, especially where IPR is weak, and these penalties intensify after 2017. Motivated by this evidence, we build a growth–trade model in which geopolitical distance raises breach risk in licensing; firms partially reprice risk via higher royalties but cannot fully insure quantities. In a consumption-only benchmark, a permanent rise in US–China geopolitical distance ...
Working Paper
Technology, Geopolitics, and Trade
We study when unilateral export controls are optimal by quantifying how geopolitical rivalry reshapes trade in ideas. Empirically, cross-border technology flows are far more sensitive than goods trade to geopolitical distance, especially where IPR is weak, and these penalties intensify after 2017. Motivated by this evidence, we build a growth–trade model in which geopolitical distance raises breach risk in licensing; firms partially reprice risk via higher royalties but cannot fully insure quantities. In a consumption-only benchmark, a permanent rise in US–China geopolitical distance ...