Search Results
Journal Article
Cyclical movements of the labor input and its implicit real wage
An examination of whether a different specification for labor input and real wages leads to a reconsideration of labor force volatility during business cycles.
Conference Paper
Macroeconomic implications
Working Paper
Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements. We document these same properties in a two-country stochastic growth model in which trade fluctuations reflect, in large part, the dynamics of capital formation. We find that the general equilibrium perspective is essential: The relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade depends ...
Working Paper
The gold standard as a rule
In this paper, we show that the monetary rule followed by a number of key countries before 1914 represented a commitment technology preventing the monetary authorities from changing planned future policy. The experiences of these major countries suggest that the gold standard was intended as a contingent rule. By that, we mean that the authorities could temporarily abandon the fixed price of gold during a wartime emergency on the understanding that convertibility at the original price of gold would be restored when the emergency passed.
Working Paper
Relative price movements in dynamic general equilibrium models of international trade
We examine the behavior of international relative prices from the perspective of dynamic general equilibrium theory, with particular emphasis on the variability of the terms of trade and the relation between the terms of trade and net exports. We highlight aspects of the theory that are critical in determining these properties, contrast our perspective with those associated with the Marshall-Lerner condition and the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, and point out features of the data that have proved difficult to explain within existing dynamic general equilibrium models.
Working Paper
Endogenous money supply and the business cycle
An empirical and theoretical analysis of how changes in the monetary policy function affect the covariance structure of macroeconomic data.
Working Paper
Business cycles and aggregate labor-market fluctuations
An overview of some recent findings about the cyclical behavior of the aggregate labor market and its relation to the overall business cycle, discussing theory and measurement issues such as the role of household production, the impact of differences in cyclical behavior of workers with different skills, and the fact that labor-input changes take the forms of both employment and hours-per-worker movements.
Working Paper
On the econometrics of world business cycles
A description of the method used in dynamic general equilibrium business-cycle research as applied in some recent work on open economies.
Working Paper
Monetary aggregates and output
This paper offers a general equilibrium model that explains how the observed correlations of money and output fluctuations may come about through endogenously determined fluctuations in the money multiplier. The model is calibrated to meet long-run (including monetary) features of the U.S. economy; it is then subjected to shocks to the Solow residual following a random process similar to that observed in U.S. data.
Working Paper
The computational experiment: an econometric tool
A specification of the steps in designing a computational experiment to address a well-posed quantitative question, emphasizing that the computational experiment is an econometric tool used in the task of deriving the quantitative implications of theory.