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Working Paper
Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2019-03-27)
We estimate trends in the labor force participation (LFP) and unemployment rates for demographic groups differentiated by age, gender, and education, using a parsimonious statistical model of age, cohort, and cycle effects. Based on the group trends, we construct trends for the aggregate LFP and unemployment rate. Important drivers of the aggregate LFP rate trend are demographic factors, with increasing educational attainment being important throughout the sample, ageing of the population becoming more important since 2000, and changes of groups' trend LFP rates, e.g., for women prior to ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-8

Journal Article
How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2017)
During the recession and recovery, hiring has been slower than might be expected considering the large numbers of vacant jobs and unemployed individuals. This raises some concern about structural changes in the process of matching job seekers with employers. However, the standard measures account for only the unemployed and not those who are out of the labor force. Including other non-employed groups in the measured pool of job seekers while adjusting for different job finding rates among these groups shows that the decline in matching efficiency is similar to earlier declines.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Passing Along Housing Wealth from Parents to Children
Benetton, Matteo; Kudlyak, Marianna; Liu, Louis; Mondragon, John; Ochse, Mitchell (2022-11-21)
Young adults are more likely to own a home if their parents are homeowners than if their parents are renters. New research reveals how parents owning a home can lead to an increase in the persistence in homeownership across generations. Specifically, homeowner parents are often able to extract the equity value from their home to help their children purchase a home. This “dynastic” home equity enables children of homeowner parents who extract equity to accumulate approximately one third more housing wealth by age 30 than children of renters.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 32 , Pages 6

Working Paper
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Gorea, Denis; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-08-05)
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for the residential properties for sale in the United States between 2001 and 2019 from the CoreLogic Multiple Listing Service Dataset. Using high-frequency measures of monetary policy shocks, we document that a one standard-deviation contractionary monetary policy surprise lowers housing list prices by 0.2–0.3 percent within two weeks—a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-16

Journal Article
What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
Kudlyak, Marianna (2015-07)
Aggregate wage growth has remained flat during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath while unemployment has exhibited substantial swings. Does the low real aggregate wage growth during the recovery indicate a weak labor market beyond what is measured by the official unemployment rate? Aggregate wage growth reflects actual changes of workers' wages, changes in the composition of workers, and changes in the composition of jobs. Some of these changes are related to underlying structural trends in the economy while others constitute the economy's response to the business cycle shocks and are ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 225-244

Journal Article
Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession
Kudlyak, Marianna (2019)
Involuntary part-time employment reached unusually high levels during the last recession and declined only slowly afterward. The speed of the decline was limited because of a combination of two factors: the number of people working part-time due to slack business conditions was declining, and the number of those who could find only part-time work continued to increase until 2013. Involuntary part-time employment recently returned to its pre-recession level but remains slightly elevated relative to historically low unemployment, likely due to structural factors.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
Avaradi, Greeshma; Kudlyak, Marianna; Miskanic, Brandon E.; Wiczer, David (2025-04-14)
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 6

Briefing
The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-04)
Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly. We estimate the trend of labor force participation and unemployment and find a substantial impact of the pandemic on estimates of trend. It turns out that levels of labor force participation and unemployment in 2021 were approaching their estimated trends. A return to 2019 levels would then represent a tight labor market, especially relative to long-run demographic trends that suggest further declines in the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 12

Briefing
Why Are Women Leaving the Labor Force?
Canon, Maria E.; Fessenden, Helen; Kudlyak, Marianna (2015-11)
The female labor force participation (LFP) rate has dropped steadily since 2000, especially among single women. At the same time, the percentage of single women has grown as a share of the female population, a trend that has increased the impact of the single women's LFP rate on the aggregate women's LFP rate. An analysis of data from the Current Population Survey shows that a growing percentage of single women who are not in the labor force are going to school. Meanwhile, an increasing share of married women list retirement as the reason for no longer participating in the labor force.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Nov

Briefing
The increased role of flows between nonparticipation and unemployment during the Great Recession and recovery
Price, David A.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2012-06)
Labor market research often focuses on transition rates between employment and unemployment without analyzing the effects of transition rates into and out of the labor force. Current Population Survey data permit analysis of transition rates among all three labor force statuses. A study at the Richmond Fed examines the role of labor force participation in the dynamics of the aggregate unemployment rate across the four most recent recessions. This research finds an increased role for transition rates between nonparticipation and unemployment during the Great Recession and recovery.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Jun

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