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Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
Kudlyak, Marianna; Tasci, Murat; Tuzemen, Didem (2023-01-01)
Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Using occupation-specific county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-10

Working Paper
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2020-05-20)
It is a remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery began, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate was stable at around 0.55 percentage points per year. The economy seems to have had an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. There was high variation in monetary and fiscal policy, and in productivity and labor-force growth, but little variation in the rate of decline of unemployment. We explore models of the labor market's self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 20

Journal Article
Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2021-11-29)
Unemployment fell at a slow and steady rate in the 10 cyclical recoveries from 1949 through 2019. These historical patterns also apply to the recovery from the pandemic recession after accounting for the unprecedented burst of temporary layoffs early in the pandemic followed by their rapid reversal from April to November 2020. Unemployment for other reasons—which has been most important in other recent recoveries—did not start declining until November 2020. Since then, unemployment for other reasons has declined at a faster pace than its historical average.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 33 , Pages 05

Working Paper
The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-02-15)
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups—those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-17

Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
Tasci, Murat; Tuzemen, Didem; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-04-21)
Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-30R

Journal Article
A closer look at the decline in the labor force participation rate
Canon, Maria E.; Debbaut, Peter; Kudlyak, Marianna (2013-10)
The labor force participation rate has fallen from over 67 percent in 2000 to almost 63 percent today. Among the reasons are the downward trends in the percentages of women and young people in the labor force.
The Regional Economist , Issue October

Journal Article
What We Know About Wage Adjustment During the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath
Kudlyak, Marianna (2015-07)
Aggregate wage growth has remained flat during the 2007-09 recession and its aftermath while unemployment has exhibited substantial swings. Does the low real aggregate wage growth during the recovery indicate a weak labor market beyond what is measured by the official unemployment rate? Aggregate wage growth reflects actual changes of workers' wages, changes in the composition of workers, and changes in the composition of jobs. Some of these changes are related to underlying structural trends in the economy while others constitute the economy's response to the business cycle shocks and are ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 225-244

Working Paper
The cyclicality of the user cost of labor with search and matching
Kudlyak, Marianna (2011)
The user cost of labor captures the hiring wage and the expected effect of the economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. In search and matching models, I show that it is the user cost and not the wage that is weighted against the worker's marginal product at the time of hiring; so, the user cost is the allocational variable. I construct its measure in the data and estimate that it is more procyclical than average wages or wages of newly hired workers. I show that the textbook search and matching model cannot simultaneously generate the empirical elasticities of the ...
Working Paper , Paper 09-12

Briefing
The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-04)
Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly. We estimate the trend of labor force participation and unemployment and find a substantial impact of the pandemic on estimates of trend. It turns out that levels of labor force participation and unemployment in 2021 were approaching their estimated trends. A return to 2019 levels would then represent a tight labor market, especially relative to long-run demographic trends that suggest further declines in the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 12

Journal Article
House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises
Gorea, Denis; Kmetz, Augustus; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Kudlyak, Marianna; Ochse, Mitchell (2023-03-27)
New evidence based on listings of homes for sale from 2000 to 2019 suggests house prices adjust to monetary policy changes over weeks rather than years, faster than previously thought. Housing list prices fall within two weeks after the Federal Reserve announces an unexpected policy tightening, similar to responses of other financial assets. House prices respond more strongly to unexpected changes in long-term interest rates than to surprises in the short-term federal funds rate. Changes in mortgage rates following Fed announcements are key to explaining this rapid house price reaction.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 09 , Pages 5

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