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Journal Article
How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus
Karabarbounis, Marios; Mehkari, M. Saif; Kudlyak, Marianna (2018)
What is the effect of government spending on private consumption? Estimates show that stimulus distributed through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act had a large positive effect. Estimates from regional data suggest every $100 of stimulus generated an additional $18 within regions. Furthermore, by accounting for economic connections that spread the impact beyond regional borders, a new study finds that every $100 triggered an increase of $40 in overall private consumption in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
A closer look at the decline in the labor force participation rate
Canon, Maria E.; Debbaut, Peter; Kudlyak, Marianna (2013-10)
The labor force participation rate has fallen from over 67 percent in 2000 to almost 63 percent today. Among the reasons are the downward trends in the percentages of women and young people in the labor force.
The Regional Economist , Issue October

Briefing
Deterring default: why some state laws decrease the probability of mortgage foreclosures
Ghent, Andra C.; Slivinski, Stephen; Kudlyak, Marianna (2009-09)
Many states give mortgage lenders strong legal means by which to pursue debt collection in the event of a mortgage default. In those states, probability of default is lower and the forms the default takes are often quite different from a costly conventional foreclosure.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sep

Journal Article
How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2017)
During the recession and recovery, hiring has been slower than might be expected considering the large numbers of vacant jobs and unemployed individuals. This raises some concern about structural changes in the process of matching job seekers with employers. However, the standard measures account for only the unemployed and not those who are out of the labor force. Including other non-employed groups in the measured pool of job seekers while adjusting for different job finding rates among these groups shows that the decline in matching efficiency is similar to earlier declines.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2017-02-15)
In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment. Based on these observations we have argued in Hornstein, Kudlyak, and Lange (2014) for an alternative measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a non-employment index, which is more comprehensive than the standard ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-5

Journal Article
Assessing the Recent Rise in Unemployment
Avaradi, Greeshma; Miskanic, Brandon E.; Wiczer, David; Kudlyak, Marianna (2025-04-14)
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market transitions account for this rise. One dominant factor appears to be a fall in the job-finding rate—the share of unemployed individuals finding employment. The duration of unemployment has also increased recently. In past decades, these patterns have frequently occurred during the onset of recessions, which suggests that these data should be closely monitored.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 09 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2026-05-08)
Using CPS microdata, 1976-2024, we estimate trend and cyclical components of unemployment and labor force participation for 44 age-gender-education groups. We fit a parsimonious state-space model in which each series is the sum of latent cohort and time-varying age effects and a latent cyclical factor shared across unemployment and participation, without imposing structural covariates. Aggregating group trends with observed population shares, we find that population aging and educational upgrading explain most long-run movements in aggregate trends, while cohort effects drive large gender ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2026-11

Working Paper
How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?
Kudlyak, Marianna (2024-03-31)
In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm’s hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. Measured by the labor’s user cost, the price of labor is substantially more pro-cyclical than the new-hire wage or the average wage. The strong procyclicality of the price of labor calls for other forces for cyclical labor demand to explain employment fluctuations.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-10

Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Dupor, Bill; Mehkari, M. Saif; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-02-03)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases local non-durable consumer spending by $0.29 and local auto spending by $0.09. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multi-region, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-004

Working Paper
Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories
Lange, Fabian; Kudlyak, Marianna (2014-12-04)
We use a novel approach to studying the heterogeneity in the job finding rates of the nonemployed by classifying the nonemployed by labor force status (LFS) histories, instead of using only one-month LFS. Job finding rates differ substantially across LFS histories: they are 25-30% among those currently out of the labor force (OLF) with recent employment, 10% among those currently OLF who have been unemployed but not employed in the previous two months, and 2% among those who have been OLF in all three previous months. This heterogeneity cannot be deduced from the one-month LFS or from ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-18

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