Discussion Paper
The informational efficiency of econometric model forecasts
Krane, Spencer D.; Berger, Allen N. (1983)
Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics , Paper 67

Working Paper
The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment
Krane, Spencer D.; Wascher, William L. (1995)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 95-43

Working Paper
Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets
Carroll, Christopher D.; Dynan, Karen E.; Krane, Spencer D. (1999)
Recent empirical work on the strength of precautionary saving has yielded widely varying conclusions. The mixed findings may reflect a number of difficulties in proxying uncertainty, executing instrumental variables estimation, and incorporating theoretical restrictions into empirical models. For each of these problems, this paper uses existing best-practice techniques and some new strategies to relate unemployment probabilities from the Current Population Survey to net worth data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We find that increases in unemployment risk do not boost saving by ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-15

Discussion Paper
The forecasting accuracy of auto assembly schedules
Reifschneider, David L.; Krane, Spencer D. (1987)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 216

Working Paper
Production smoothing evidence from physical-product data
Braun, Steven; Krane, Spencer D. (1990)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 103

Working Paper
Asymmetric inventory costs, aggregation, and production smoothing
Krane, Spencer D. (1987)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 82

Working Paper
Induced seasonality and production-smoothing models of inventory behavior
Krane, Spencer D. (1991)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 121

Journal Article
Evidence on entrepreneurs in the United States: data from the 1989–2004 survey of consumer finances
Doctor, Phil; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Krane, Spencer D. (2007-10)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Board?s Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors examine characteristics of entrepreneurs and the businesses they run. Their analysis confirms that business owners are important sources of saving and wealth creation in the U.S. and that they are less risk averse than other wealthy households. This discounts the notion that the wealth of entrepreneurs disproportionately reflects a buildup of precautionary balances to guard against financial risk.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 31 , Issue Q IV , Pages 18-36

Journal Article
Consumption-based macroeconomic forecasting
Campbell, Jeffrey R.; Krane, Spencer D. (2005-10)
The authors build a small-scale econometric model based on the permanent income theory of consumption and balanced economic growth in order to study the influence of permanent and transitory factors on the level of economic activity.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 29 , Issue Q IV , Pages 52-70

Journal Article
An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001
Krane, Spencer D. (2003-01)
During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 27 , Issue Q I