Search Results
Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 1, The Persistent Effects of the Great Recession
Financial panic is a new reality that may be affecting the aggregate economy.
Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession
What is driving the missing economic recovery since the Great Recession?
Journal Article
Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets
The liquidity of government bonds has been even more valuable since the Great Recession.
Journal Article
COVID-19: Scarring Body and Mind
"Belief scarring" from the COVID-19 pandemic may generate prolonged effects on the economy—with economic costs greater than the drop in GDP in 2020.
Journal Article
Liquidity Dries Up
The Federal Reserve has been increasing the federal funds rate, but the interest rate banks pay on deposits have stood still, leading to outflows of bank deposits and the drying up of liquidity.
Journal Article
Where Do You Keep Your Liquid Wealth—Bank Deposits or T-bills?
The beginning of 2022 saw bank deposits, such as CDs, paying similar interest rates to Treasury bills, but they now pay almost 4% less.
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Journal Article
What Is Driving Student Debt in the Eighth District?
Tuition appears to be a bigger driver of student debt growth in the Eighth District than in the U.S. as a whole.
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
This article analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Journal Article
Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships
The authors study the internal organization of small business partnerships and focus on the number of owners and ownership structure and the dynamics of these variables. They find that partnerships tend to have a small number of owners with equal distribution of ownership shares. Moreover, while partnerships with equally distributed shares tend to keep this distribution constant, those with unequally distributed shares tend to move toward more equal distribution over time. The authors highlight that these facts are in line with the theory of private information in small business partnerships ...