Search Results
Journal Article
Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?
This article explains the recent high levels of residential investment and rates of homeownership.
Journal Article
A dynamic macroeconomic analysis of NAFTA
This article studies the impact of NAFTA on the three North American economies and a composite of their trading partners. The results suggest NAFTA will lead to welfare gains for all North American participants, with the greatest gains accruing to Mexico.
Journal Article
Evidence of the North--South business cycle
This article examines the fluctuations of two regional economies: the developed, industrial goods exporting countries of the world ("North") and the developing, commodity exporting countries ("South"). The author finds that these very different regions have similar business cycle characteristics and that cyclical fluctuations in one region are positively correlated with fluctuations in other. Preliminary data analysis suggests that cyclical fluctuations in the South are caused by fluctuations that originate in the North.
Journal Article
Is the EMU a viable common currency area? a VAR analysis of regional business cycles
Many commentators are skeptical about the long-run viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU). This article compares the EMU with a well-functioning currency union, the U.S., and finds that they are similar based on key criteria. On the basis of this analysis, the EMU may be as viable as the U.S. monetary union.
Working Paper
International business cycles under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes
This paper studies the changing characteristics of post-war international comovement under fixed and flexible exchange regimes. I find that business cycle comovement among all the G7 economies was highest in the universally flexible exchange rate era following the collapse of Bretton Woods (BW) and before the Basle-Nyborg agreement tightened the bands governing the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). With the exception of a few examples (Canada/US and Germany/France) G7 business cycles were far less synchronized in the universally fixed exchange rate BW era. More recently the ERM period ...
Working Paper
Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles
This paper develops a statistical model to study the business cycles of the eight U.S. BEA regions. By combining unobserved component and VAR techniques I identify not only common and idiosyncratic sources of innovation, but also common and idiosyncratic responses to common shocks. Using this model, I show, at the usual levels of statistical significance, that U.S. regions deviate significantly from Mundell's notion of an optimum currency area. I identify five core regions that have similar sources of disturbances and responses to disturbances (New England, Mideast, Great Lakes, Rocky ...
Working Paper
Trade structure, industrial structure, and international business cycles
This paper examines the extent to which the composition of a country's production and trade differs among its trade partners. For example, does the US export the same bundle of goods to the UK as it does to Japan? If we find high dispersion in a country's export and import bundles with its various trading partners, can this be linked to identifiable country characteristics? These findings are important for two reasons. First, they enrich our empirical understanding of the nature of trade. Second, they will stand as a guide for further development of economic theories of the international ...
Journal Article
Is there evidence of the new economy in U.S. GDP data?
This article tests whether the trend growth rate of U.S. GDP changed significantly over the "new economy" period from 1996 to 2003. Based on estimates from widely used methods of trend/cycle decomposition, the author finds that the trend growth rate of GDP was not significantly higher over this period. This suggests that the U.S. was the same old economy in the latter half of the 1990s.
Journal Article
Are international business cycles different under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes?
A major concern surrounding European Monetary Union is that output fluctuations of member countries may become more volatile under a common currency because they will have increased sensitivity to foreign business cycles. This article analyzes the link between exchange rate regimes and the behavior of international business cycles.