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Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms and the Prospect of Higher Input Prices
Since the middle of 2023, firms' year-ahead input price growth expectations have been relatively steady, hovering around 3 percent for manufacturers and between 4 to 5 percent for service providers. However, recent developments in trade and tariff policy have introduced new uncertainty into firms' decision-making. In December, our surveys showed little evidence that this uncertainty had made its way into firms' price or cost growth expectations. Data from our February surveys show a slight uptick in firms' expected growth in the prices they pay their suppliers.In addition to the slight uptick ...
Discussion Paper
Are Labor Shortages in Small Cities and Rural Areas Worse Than Urban Ones?
In the past, the Richmond Fed has reported about the difficulty of businesses finding workers with the right skills. In conversations with business leaders across the Fifth District, we have heard about labor availability challenges across all geographies: in large urban centers, small cities, and rural areas. This post examines how labor availability differs between small cities and rural areas versus large urban centers. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic made it harder for firms in small cities and rural areas to find workers compared to firms in urban areas. Perhaps because of the ...
Discussion Paper
The Impact of Hurricane Helene on Fifth District Businesses
Hurricane Helene caused significant disruptions across the Fifth District, especially in western North Carolina, upstate and western South Carolina, and Southwest Virginia. More than 200 people died from the storm, utilities and drinking water became unavailable, and people were displaced from their homes. In the storm's aftermath, the Richmond Fed has been actively monitoring and reporting about its impacts, including on the devastation of Hurricane Helene and what we have been learning as business conditions evolve. In our November business surveys, fielded between Oct. 24 and Nov. 20 ...
Discussion Paper
Are Customers Pulling Back on Spending? Evidence From the Richmond Fed Business Surveys
In the last few years, consumer spending in the United States has been remarkably resilient. In our August business survey, we sought to understand if Fifth District firms have recently experienced softening demand for their goods or services. A majority of firms reported that over the past three months, customers decreased the amount of goods and services purchased — both in quantity and in dollar amount. The survey also found that demand has softened more for manufacturers and retailers than firms in other industries. Additionally, firms reported that lower-income customers pulled back on ...
Discussion Paper
Results From the Survey of Community College Outcomes Extended Pilot
After three years of developing partnerships with community colleges across the Fifth District, we are proud to release our first-year results from our extended pilot of the Survey of Community College Outcomes.When the Richmond Fed launched this initiative, the most common question we heard from community colleges was, "Why does the Richmond Fed care about community colleges?" The answer is that the Richmond Fed cares about workforce development, and community colleges play a vital role across the Fifth District providing individuals with the skills needed to participate in the workforce.
Discussion Paper
Are Fifth District Firms Revisiting Their Prices Less Often Amid Cooling Inflation?
The Richmond Fed's monthly business surveys of Fifth District firms gauge regional firm dynamics in pricing. We carefully monitor changes in firms' realized prices as well as their pricing expectations, especially since inflation began to accelerate in 2021 and 2022. Early last year, we examined how firms began to adjust their prices more frequently as firms' price forecasts became less accurate and uncertainty rose, as evidenced by a rising standard deviation of price growth expectations.
Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms Report Cautious Optimism Going Into 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have required constant shifts in how businesses operate. Not surprisingly, uncertainty has been a theme among many firms in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's business outreach in the last few years. To better understand what firms are expecting for 2023, we asked them for their outlook and the strategies they might take to prepare for possible economic scenarios.
Discussion Paper
Regional Businesses Returning to Pre-COVID-19 Operations
Discussion Paper
Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025
Every November, the Richmond Fed asks businesses a series of questions about their expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. This year, in addition to the usual set of questions, we asked firms if they have reduced the size of their workforce over the past three months and what workforce decisions they would make if business conditions deteriorated in the next six months.Consistent with past results, most responding businesses expect to maintain or increase employee headcount over the next 12 months. However, there were some shifts in responses compared ...