Search Results
Journal Article
Do interest rates help predict inflation?
Accurate forecasts of inflation are important to policymakers and to individuals who must make decisions on the basis of expectations about the future purchasing power of the dollar. ; Recent research on forecasting inflation has shown that interest rates, by themselves, may provide useful information about future inflation. In this article, Kenneth M. Emery and Evan F. Koenig investigate whether interest rates contain information about future inflation beyond that found in traditional inflation-forecasting models. In other words, does adding interest rates to traditional inflation models ...
Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact
To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Journal Article
The 'Great Moderation' in output and employment volatility: an update
The reduced aggregate volatility that began in 1984 has continued into the new millennium.
Discussion Paper
All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule
The classic Taylor rule for adjusting the stance of monetary policy is formally a special case of nominal- gross-domestic-product (GDP) targeting. Suitably implemented, moreover, nominal-GDP targeting satisfies the definition of a "flexible inflation targeting" policy rule. However, nominal-GDP targeting would require more discipline from policymakers than some analysts think is realistic.
Journal Article
Monetary policy in a zero-interest-rate economy
Journal Article
The dynamic impact of fundamental tax reform part 1: the basic model
The Internal Revenue Service remains unpopular, the U.S. savings rate remains low, and pressure to efficiently raise significant new tax revenues seems certain to grow once the baby boom generation reaches retirement age. Consequently, it is likely that alternatives to the current income tax system will receive substantial political and media attention in coming years. In this first of two articles on the economic impact of fundamental tax reform, Evan Koenig and Gregory Huffman describe a framework for analyzing how the adoption of a flat-rate consumption tax would affect the economy over ...
What the Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead
As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.
Journal Article
Is the Fed slave to a defunct economist