Search Results
Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
Journal Article
Recent trade and exchange rate movements: possible explanations
Journal Article
Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 1
The IS-LM diagram was developed as a tool for analyzing Keynesian economies-economies with "sticky" prices and myopic households. In a series of two articles, Evan Koenig shows that a graphical apparatus similar to the traditional IS-LM diagram can be used to analyze economies that have optimizing, forward-looking households. In particular, an expectations-augmented variant of IS-LM analysis is fully consistent with a popular real-business-cycle model. Thus, the IS-LM diagram has wide applicability as a pedagogical device and as a framework within which to discuss policy. ; This article ...
Working Paper
The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting
We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.
Discussion Paper
All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule
The classic Taylor rule for adjusting the stance of monetary policy is formally a special case of nominal- gross-domestic-product (GDP) targeting. Suitably implemented, moreover, nominal-GDP targeting satisfies the definition of a "flexible inflation targeting" policy rule. However, nominal-GDP targeting would require more discipline from policymakers than some analysts think is realistic.
Working Paper
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
We develop a Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct MEIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of sheltering-in-place and social disengagement occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of the decline in mobility in early April, localities that engaged in a 10% larger decrease in mobility than ...
Journal Article
Growth in the U.S. economy depends on stronger consumer spending
Journal Article
A new monetary aggregate
During the past two decades, financial innovations have proceeded at a rapid pace. These innovations have altered the liquidity of some assets relative to that of others. As a result, traditional measures of the money supply may have become less reliable as measures of household liquidity. Even sophisticated measures of the money supply, such as the Divisia monetary aggregates, do not adequately adjust for the effects of changes in the payments technology. ; Koenig and Fomby propose a measure of the money supply that avoids some of the shortcomings of existing monetary aggregates. The ...
Monetary Policy in Time of Pandemic
Some monetary policy strategies have greater potential than others to mitigate pandemic-related financial strains.
Journal Article
Real-time historical dataset enhances accuracy of economic analyses
A growing body of empirical macroeconomic literature suggests that analyses using real-time data often yield substantially different?and more accurate?conclusions.