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Discussion Paper
The Different Paths of Greece and Spain to High Unemployment
Sahin, Aysegul; Klitgaard, Thomas (2012-11-28)
Euro area GDP remains below its 2007 level due to the global financial meltdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the periphery countries. Unemployment rates make it clear that some countries have fared much worse than others—the rates in Spain and Greece today are over 25 percent and are much higher than rates in the next highest, Portugal (15.7 percent), and in the euro area (11.6 percent). Quite a change from 2007, when Spain and Greece had lower unemployment rates than the euro area as a whole. In this post, we show that while the unemployment rates in the two countries are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121128

Discussion Paper
Capital Flight inside the Euro Area: Cooling Off a Fire Sale
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2013-10-02)
Countries in the euro area periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain saw large-scale capital flight in 2011 and the first half of 2012. While events unfolded much like a balance of payments crisis, the contraction in domestic credit was less severe than would ordinarily be caused by capital flight of this scale. Why was that? An important reason is that much of the capital flight was financed by credits to deficit countries? central banks, with those credits extended collectively by other central banks in the euro area. This balance of payments financing was paired with policies to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131002

Discussion Paper
Assessing the Outlook for Employment across Industries
Klitgaard, Thomas; Nourbash, Ethan (2023-05-10)
Job gains exceeded output growth in 2022, bringing GDP per worker back down to its trend level after being well above for an extended period. Employment is consequently set to grow slower than output going forward, as it typically does. Breaking down the GDP per worker by industry, though, shows a significant divergence between the services and goods-producing sectors. Productivity in the services sector was modestly above its pre-pandemic path at the end of last year, suggesting room for relatively strong employment growth, with the gap particularly large in the health care, professional and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230510

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Journal Article
Overview of the volume ; Special issue: lessons from recent crises in Asian and other emerging markets
Klitgaard, Thomas; Goldberg, Linda S. (2000-09)
Economic Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market
Weir, Laura; Klitgaard, Thomas (2004-05)
Traders, strategists, and other participants in the currency markets continuously seek to understand and interpret short-term exchange rate movements. One data set frequently used in those efforts is a weekly report of net futures market positions held by speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In this article, the authors pursue a transaction-oriented line of research to track short-term exchange rate moves. They examine the data set for six currencies over a ten-year period and document a strong contemporaneous relationship between weekly changes in speculators' net positions and ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue May , Pages 17-28

Journal Article
Are markets really efficient?
Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market
De Paoli, Bianca; Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-11-14)
Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Journal Article
Colloquium on U.S. wage trends in the 1980s: morning session: summary of discussion
Klitgaard, Thomas; Posen, Adam S. (1995-01)
Economic Policy Review , Issue Jan , Pages 33-34

Journal Article
Exchange rates and profit margins: the case of Japanese exporters
Klitgaard, Thomas (1999-04)
When exchange rates shift, exporters must decide whether it is more important to maintain profit margins or to maintain stable export prices. This examination of Japanese exporters finds that these firms have taken a middle course: By altering their profit margins to some degree, the exporters moderate the exchange-rate-induced changes in prices seen by their foreign customers. The analysis finds that in the three major exporting industries - industrial machinery, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment - a 10 percent rise in the yen leads firms to lower profit margins on exports ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 5 , Issue Apr , Pages 41-54

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