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Journal Article
Live long and prosper: challenges ahead for an aging population
Groshen, Erica L.; Klitgaard, Thomas (2002-02)
Over the next thirty years, the percentage of people who are 65 and over will grow rapidly while the percentage of people in their working years will decline. This shift in the age distribution of the population will put enormous pressure on social security systems in the United States, Germany, and Japan as the number of workers whose payroll taxes fund each retiree drops sharply.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue Feb

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Long Depression and the Panic of 1873
Narron, James; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-02-05)
It always seemed to come down to railroads in the 1800s. Railroads fueled much of the economic growth in the United States at that time, but they required that a great deal of upfront capital be devoted to risky projects. The panics of 1837 and 1857 can both be pinned on railroad investments that went awry, creating enough doubt about the banking system to cause pervasive bank runs. The fatal spark for the Panic of 1873 was also tied to railroad investments—a major bank financing a railroad venture announced that it would suspend withdrawals. As other banks started failing, consumers and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160205

Discussion Paper
How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2022-03-30)
The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate. Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220330

Discussion Paper
The Declining U.S. Reliance on Foreign Investors
Klitgaard, Thomas; Mui, Preston (2014-08-20)
The United States has been borrowing from the rest of the world since the mid-1980s. From 2000 to 2008, this borrowing averaged over $600 billion per year, which translates into U.S. spending exceeding income by almost 5.0 percent of GDP. Borrowing fell during the recent recession, as would be expected, and then rebounded with the recovery. Since 2011, however, borrowing has trended down and fell to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2013, the smallest amount as a share of GDP since 1997. A reduced dependency on foreign funds can be viewed as a favorable development to the extent that it reflects an ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140820

Discussion Paper
Has the Pandemic Reduced U.S. Remittances Going to Latin America?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2020-11-09)
Workers' remittances—funds that migrants send to their country of birth—are an important source of income for a number of economies in Latin America, with the bulk of these funds coming from the United States. Have these flows dried up, given the COVID-19 recession and resulting unprecedented job losses? We find that remittances initially faltered but rebounded in the summer months, performing better than during the last U.S. recession despite more severe job losses. Large government income support payments probably explain some of this resilience. Whether remittances continue to hold up ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201109

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Discussion Paper
How Has Germany's Economy Been Affected by the Recent Surge in Immigration?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-05-20)
Germany emerged as a leading destination for immigration around 2011, as the country's labor market improved while unemployment climbed elsewhere in the European Union. A second wave began in 2015, with refugees from the Middle East adding to already heavy inflows from Eastern Europe. The demographic consequences of the surge in immigration include a renewed rise in Germany's population and the stabilization of the country's median age. The macroeconomic consequences are hard to measure but look promising, since per capita income growth has held up and unemployment has declined. Data on ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190520

Discussion Paper
The Rapidly Changing Nature of Japan’s Public Debt
Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-06-22)
Japan’s general government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest of advanced economies, due in part to increased spending on social services for an aging population and a level of nominal GDP that has not increased for two decades. The interest rate payments from taxpayers on this debt are moderated by income earned on government assets and by low interest rates. One might think that the Bank of Japan’s purchases of government bonds would further ease the burden on taxpayers, with interest payments to the Bank of Japan on its bond holdings rebated back to the government. Merging the balance ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160622

Journal Article
Coping with the rising yen: Japan's recent export experience
Klitgaard, Thomas (1996-01)
Despite an appreciating yen, Japanese firms have managed to maintain strong export sales growth during the first half of the 1990s. Their strategies? Cutting the yen price of exports and shifting production to higher-value merchandise.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 2 , Issue Jan

Discussion Paper
Will Demographic Headwinds Hobble China's Economy?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Clark, Hunter L. (2018-08-15)
China’s population is only growing at a 0.5 percent annual rate, its working-age cohort (ages 15 to 64) is shrinking, and the share of the population that is 65 and over is rising rapidly. Together, these trends will act as a significant restraint on the country’s economic growth. Nonetheless, there are reasons to conclude that growth will remain relatively strong going forward, most notably because the ongoing shift from rural to urban jobs will continue to boost labor productivity for some time to come.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180815

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