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Working Paper
The macroeconomics of exchange rate shocks
Discussion Paper
Money and the state-preference model
Discussion Paper
The banking crisis from a macroeconomic perspective
Discussion Paper
Futures markets and transaction costs
Discussion Paper
The economics of the 1975-1978 home price boom
Discussion Paper
Financial innovations and the monetary transmission mechanism
Working Paper
Anticipatory capital flows and the behaviour of the dollar
In this paper, I argue that the value of the dollar is influenced by the "state of long-term expectation" and that market expectations do not appear to embody a return to steady state. I suggest that the recent strength of investment in the United States reflects "animal spirits" and those investors appear to expect the investment boom to he sustained indefinitely. Finally, I show how an adverse shift in perceptions concerning the profitability of investment, by altering this state of expectations and thereby affecting international capital flows, conceivably could put upward pressure on ...
Discussion Paper
Financial innovations and the demand for money