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Lessons from the destabilization of inflation in the 1970s
Interest has recently increased in the question of whether the destabilization of inflation during the 1970s might repeat itself in the 2020s.
Data center boom expected to raise electricity component of PCE inflation
Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation.
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
How the Saudi Decision to Launch a Price War Is Reshaping the Global Oil Market
In the second week of March, the already fragile global oil market was rocked by Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it would expand oil production to unprecedented levels, signaling an end to its price cooperation with Russia.
How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy
The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.
Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought
Recent advances in applied work have overturned decades of conventional wisdom regarding how consumers respond to gasoline price fluctuations.
A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations
It has been considered self-evident until recently that oil prices drive inflation expectations, but new evidence calls into question this conclusion.
What Is the U.S. Oil Industry Doing About Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
Oil companies have felt compelled to react both in anticipation of new regulatory policies and in response to growing pressure from investors.