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Working Paper
The time consistency of monetary and fiscal policies
Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Alvarez, Fernando (2002)
Are optimal monetary and fiscal policies time consistent in a monetary economy? Yes, but if and only if under commitment the Friedman rule of setting nominal interest rates to zero is optimal. This result is of applied interest because the Friedman rule is optimal for the standard preferences used in applied work, those consistent with the growth facts. (Replaced by Staff Report No: 305)
Working Papers , Paper 616

Report
The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Labor Market Policies
Hurst, Erik; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Pastorino, Elena; Winberry, Thomas (2025-03-28)
We develop a dynamic macroeconomic framework with worker heterogeneity, putty-clay adjustment frictions, and firm monopsony power to study the distributional impact of labor market policies over time. Our framework reconciles the well-known tension between low short-run and high long-run elasticities of substitution across inputs of production, especially among workers with different skills within a same education group. We use this framework to evaluate the effects of redistributive policies such as the minimum wage and the Earned Income Tax Credit. We argue that since these policies ...
Staff Report , Paper 668

Report
The heterogeneous state of modern macroeconomics: a reply to Solow
Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J. (2007)
Robert Solow has criticized our 2006 Journal of Economic Perspectives essay describing ?Modern Macroeconomics in Practice.? Solow eloquently voices the commonly heard complaint that too much macroeconomic work today starts with a model with a single type of agent. We argue that modern macroeconomics may not end too far from where Solow prefers. He is also critical of how modern macroeconomists use data to construct models. Specifically, he seems to think that calibration is the only way that our models encounter data. To the contrary, we argue that modern macroeconomics uses a wide variety of ...
Staff Report , Paper 399

Working Paper
Sophisticated monetary policies
Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Atkeson, Andrew (2008)
The Ramsey approach to policy analysis finds the best competitive equilibrium given a set of available instruments. This approach is silent about unique implementation, namely designing policies so that the associated competitive equilibrium is unique. This silence is particularly problematic in monetary policy environments where many ways of specifying policy lead to indeterminacy. We show that sophisticated policies which depend on the history of private actions and which can differ on and off the equilibrium path can uniquely implement any desired competitive equilibrium. A large ...
Working Papers , Paper 659

Report
Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes
Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Christiano, Lawrence J. (1993)
We find conditions for the Friedman rule to be optimal in three standard models of money. These conditions are homotheticity and separability assumptions on preferences similar to those in the public finance literature on optimal uniform commodity taxation. We show that there is no connection between our results and the result in the standard public finance literature that intermediate goods should not be taxed.
Staff Report , Paper 158

Working Paper
Time-varying risk, interest rates and exchange rates in general equilibrium
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Alvarez, Fernando; Atkeson, Andrew (2005)
Time-varying risk is the primary force driving nominal interest rate differentials on currency-denominated bonds. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. We show that a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation?a variable degree of asset market segmentation?can produce key features of actual interest rates and exchange rates. The endogenous segmentation arises from a fixed cost for agents to exchange money for assets. As inflation varies, the benefit of asset market participation varies, and that ...
Working Papers , Paper 627

Working Paper
If exchange rates are random walks then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Alvarez, Fernando; Atkeson, Andrew (2007)
The key question asked by standard monetary models used for policy analysis is how do changes in short term interest rates affect the economy. All of the standard models imply that such changes in interest rates affect the economy by altering the conditional means of the macroeconomic aggregates and have no effect on the conditional variances of these aggregates. We argue that the data on exchange rates imply nearly the opposite: fluctuations in interest rates are associated with nearly one-for-one changes in conditional variances and nearly no changes in conditional means. In this sense ...
Working Papers , Paper 650

Report
Coordination of fiscal policies in a world economy
Kehoe, Patrick J. (1986)
This paper provides a simple counterexample to the standard belief that in a world economy in which all countries are small, strategic interactions between policymakers are trivial and thus cooperative and noncooperative government policies coincide. It is well known that this holds for tariff policies. However, this paper demonstrates the result does not apply to government policies generally. Indeed, this paper presents a simple counterexample for the case of fiscal policy. In addition, the paper analyzes how optimally coordinated fiscal policies differ from noncooperative policies. It ...
Staff Report , Paper 98

Report
Reputation with multiple relationships: reviving reputation models of debt
Cole, Harold L.; Kehoe, Patrick J. (1991)
A traditional explanation for why sovereign governments repay debts is that they want to keep a good reputation so they can easily borrow more. Bulow and Rogoff have challenged this explanation. They argue that, in complete information models, government borrowing requires direct legal sanctions. We argue that, in incomplete information models with multiple trust relationships, large amounts of government borrowing can be supported by reputation alone.
Staff Report , Paper 137

Journal Article
Accounting for the Great Depression
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Chari, V. V.; McGrattan, Ellen R. (2003-04)
Economists have offered many theories for the U.S. Great Depression, but no consensus has formed on the main forces behind it. Here we describe and demonstrate a simple methodology for determining which theories are the most promising. We show that a large class of models, including models with various frictions, are equivalent to a prototype growth model with time-varying efficiency, labor, and investment wedges that, at least on face value, look like time-varying productivity, labor taxes, and investment taxes. We use U.S. data to measure these wedges, feed them back into the prototype ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 27 , Issue Spr , Pages 2-8

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