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Journal Article
Finite horizons and the twin deficits
This paper uses Blanchard's (1985) model to study the relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits. The model is applied to annual post-war data from the U.S., Japan, and Germany. I find that in all three countries there is a significant link between trade deficits and budget deficits, holding constant expected changes in GNP and government expenditure. However, the implied planning horizons are quite different across countries. In particular, the implied planning horizon in the U.S. is only about 3 to 4 years, whereas in Japan it is 71 years and in Germany it is 31 years.
Working Paper
Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin
This paper estimates a linearized, stochastic version of Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) credit cycle model, using land price data from Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. It is shown that the welfare costs of borrowing constraints are positively related to the persistence of (de-trended) land price fluctuations. When the residual demand curve for land is inelastic and the steady state share of land held by the constrained sector is less than 30 percent, welfare costs are less than 1 percent of GDP in all countries. However, the costs of borrowing constraints rise quickly as the constrained sector ...
Journal Article
Could Russia have learned from China?
Journal Article
Generational accounting in open economies
Using data on U.S. and Japanese government debt, we calibrate a version of Weil's (1989) model and study the international and intergenerational consequences of recent fiscal policy. Assuming debt/GDP ratios stabilize at current levels, the model implies: (1) the world real interest rate rises by fewer than two basis points; (2) the United States runs small but persistent external deficits; and (3) current generations in the United States experience a slight increase in wealth, while future generations both at home and abroad suffer analogous decreases. Most of the wealth effects are ...
Working Paper
The role of relative performance in bank closure decisions
This paper studies a competitive banking industry subject to common and idiosyncratic shocks. The induced correlation across bank portfolio returns can be used by a regulator to improve inferences about bank portfolio choices. We compare two types of closure rules: (1) an 'absolute closure rule', which closes banks when their own individual asset/liability ratios fall below a given threshold, and (2) a 'relative closure rule', which closes banks when their asset/liability ratios fall below the industry average by a given amount. ; Two main results emerge from the model. First, a relative ...
Journal Article
New measures of Japanese monetary policy
Working Paper
A comparison of discount rate models using international stock market data
This paper compares the ability of four discount rate models to explain the cross-sectional and time-series variation of stock returns in the U.S., Japan, England, Germany, and Canada. The data consist of quarterly returns (in dollars) on Morgan Stanley's Capital International indices for the period 1972 through 1991. The following four models are considered: (1) A consumption CAPM model, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution in consumption, (2) A production CAPM model, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation in ...
Journal Article
Will inflation targeting work in developing countries?
Working Paper
Optimal policy with limited commitment
This paper uses Whiteman's(1986) frequency-domain optimization methodology to parameterize the precommitment period in a standard rational expectations policy design model. This allows researchers to adopt an empirical approach to the time consistency issue. That is, the operative commitment horizon in a given policy setting can be estimated along with the other parameters characterizing the preferences and constraints of the agents in the model. It is shown that the commitment horizon can be estimated by running (restricted) regressions of the policymaker's instrument variable on past values ...
Journal Article
Comovements among national stock markets
This paper uses the methodology of Hansen and Jaganathan (1991) to derive a lower bound on the correlation between any pair of asset returns under the hypothesis of complete markets. The bound is a simple function of the two assets' Sharpe ratios and the coefficient of variation of a unique stochastic discount factor. The paper uses this bound to conduct robust, nonparametric tests of the hypothesis that international equity markets are integrated. ; Using monthly stock return data from the U.S., Japan, and Great Britain for the period 1980 through 1993, I find that conclusions about market ...