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Working Paper
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation
We document a liquidity channel through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses. Households hold nominal liabilities with longer duration than their nominal assets. Due to this mismatch, losses from unexpected inflation concentrate over short horizons while gains accumulate over the long run, harming liquidity-constrained households who cannot borrow against future gains. The 2021–2022 inflation shock caused welfare losses valued at 1.1% of lifetime wealth for the lower half of the wealth distribution—equivalent in dollar terms to 47% of annual consumption. More ...
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Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN
In this article, we present a new real-time model called CHURN—short for Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast. CHURN provides a weekly tracking estimate for the civilian unemployment rate (UR) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To do so, CHURN blends monthly statistics on job flows (i.e., job-finding and job-separation rates) from the BLS and other traditional labor market indicators with alternative high-frequency indicators from private sector sources.
Introducing the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators
On September 23, 2025, we debuted the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators. Updated twice per month, this new data release provides an early read on U.S. labor market conditions: The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast is a forecast of the U.S. civilian unemployment rate while the Chicago Fed Layoffs and Other Separations Rate and the Chicago Fed Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers provide further context for the job flows that influence the unemployment rate. In this article, we describe these new indicators and provide additional analysis for their first release for September ...
Working Paper
The Returns to Public Library Investment
Local governments spend over 12 billion dollars annually funding the operation of 15,000 public libraries in the United States. This funding supports widespread library use: more than 50% of Americans visit public libraries each year. But despite extensive public investment in libraries, surprisingly little research quantities the effects of public libraries on communities and children. We use data on the near-universe of U.S. public libraries to study the effects of capital spending shocks on library resources, patron usage, student achievement, and local housing prices. We use a dynamic ...
How Much Can Households Gain and Lose with Unexpected Inflation?
This analysis looks at how the 2021-22 inflation shock affected households based on their exposure to nominal assets and nominal liabilities.
Tracking Holiday Spending with CARTS 2.2 and a New Dashboard
In this Chicago Fed Insights article, we provide an update on the Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS). CARTS is a summary measure of multiple high-frequency consumer spending indicators that aims to improve on the timeliness and reliability of traditional measures of U.S. retail spending.
Why Are Illiquid Households Affected More by Inflation?
Surprise inflation can hit illiquid households harder because they can’t easily offset real losses in short-term assets with real gains in long-term liabilities.
Working Paper
Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume: Evidence from Covid-19 Stimulus Payments
We identify 22,340 recipients of Covid-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-level debit card data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks following a sudden $1,200 payment from the IRS, consumers immediately increased spending by an average of $604, implying a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 50%. Consumer spending fell back to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheck-to-paycheck spend 62% of the stimulus payment within two weeks, while recipients who save much of their monthly income spend only 35% of the ...
Working Paper
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation
We document a liquidity channel through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses. Household balance sheets are nominal maturity mismatched: nominal liabilities have a longer duration than nominal assets. Due to this mismatch, losses from unexpected inflation are concentrated over short time horizons, while gains are spread out over the longer run. This has negative effects on liquidity-constrained households, who cannot easily borrow against their future gains. We quantify the importance of the liquidity channel and show that, for households in the lower half of the ...
Searching for “Inflation Canaries” in Household Surveys
Current surveys of household inflation expectations make it challenging to identify “inflation canaries”—individuals who consistently send out early and accurate warning signals for inflation. We propose some simple changes in survey design (longer, staggered survey panels) and emphasis (focusing on changes in expectations rather than levels and highlighting particularly accurate subpopulations) that have the potential to alleviate these concerns. To demonstrate, we provide several examples using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.