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Discussion Paper
Beyond Imports: The Supply Chain Effects of Trade Protection on Export Growth
The United States imposed a series of wide-ranging increases in import tariffs from 2018 through 2019. By August of 2019, $290 billion of U.S. imports - about 12% of the total - were subject to an average tariff increase of 24 percentage points.
Working Paper
An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. We document three new GVC patterns. First, for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017, substantially higher than what aggregate data suggests. Second, we find strong complementarities between input and output markets reflected in “round-trip” trade linkages where an establishment sources inputs from and ...
Working Paper
Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we document the implied incidence and scope of new import tariffs. Firms that eventually faced tariff increases on their imports accounted for 84% of all exports and they represent 65% of manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from ...
Working Paper
Identifying Foreign Suppliers in U.S. Import Data
Relationships between firms and their foreign suppliers are the foundation of international trade, but data limitations and reliability concerns make studying such relationships challenging. We evaluate and enhance supplier information in U.S. import data and present new facts about importer?exporter relationships. Count of foreign exporters from U.S. import data tends to exceed those from source country data, especially from China. The pattern of U.S. imports from origin countries changes substantially by tracing trade back to the supplier's location instead. Related-party relationships ...