Journal Article
Capital controls by any other name
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011)
The embrace of ad hoc capital controls to address temporary market inefficiencies on a case-by-case basis, while pragmatic, perpetuates the view that each capital crisis is an isolated example of failed financial institutions.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Mexico's integration into NAFTA markets: a view from sectoral real exchange rates
Juvenal, Luciana; Blavy, Rodolphe (2009-09)
The authors use a threshold autoregressive model to confirm the presence of nonlinearities in sectoral real exchange rate dynamics across Mexico, Canada, and the United States for the periods before and after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although trade liberalization is associated with reduced transaction costs and lower relative price differentials among countries, the authors find, by using estimated threshold bands, that Mexico still faces higher transaction costs than its developed counterparts. Other determinants of transaction costs are distance and nominal exchange ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Sep , Pages 441-464

Working Paper
Pricing-to-market and business cycle synchronization
Juvenal, Luciana; Monteiro, Paulo Santos (2010)
There is substantial evidence that countries or regions with stronger trade linkages tend to have business cycles which are more synchronized. However, the standard international business cycle framework cannot replicate this finding. In this paper we study a multiple- country model of international trade with imperfect competition and variable markups and embed it into a real business cycle framework by including aggregate technology shocks and allowing for variable labor supply. The model is successful at replicating the empirical relation between trade and business cycle synchronization. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-038

Journal Article
Why \\"fixing\\" China's currency is no quick fix
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011-04)
Even if China does revalue its currency, jobs aren?t likely to come flooding back to the United States. Much of what China exports to the U.S. originates in other Asian countries.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
Mexico's oportunidades program fails to make the grade in NYC
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2010-07)
A program that pays poor, rural Mexican families to keep their children in school didn't translate well to New York City. The latter's version will end this summer.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
Japan reenters the foreign exchange market
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2010)
From 1999 to 2004 Japan unilaterally sold a combined, and unprecedented, 500 billion dollars of yen.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Speculation in the oil market
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan (2012)
Disentangling the true drivers of oil prices is a critical first step for allocating resources and designing good policy.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
When oil prices jump, is speculation to blame?
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan; Fawley, Brett W. (2012-04)
Whenever the price at the pump climbs week after week, people start pointing fingers at investment banks, hedge funds and other speculators. This article quantifies the role that speculation played in the rise of oil prices during the past decade.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr

Journal Article
International trade integration and business cycle synchronization
Juvenal, Luciana (2009)
The changes in international trade and finance are linked to the changes in business cycle correlations.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Monetary policy and asset prices
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2010)
The housing market crisis is the latest reminder that asset prices can and do run wild at rates capable of negative effects on real economic activity. Not surprisingly, this has reinvigorated debate over whether central banks should respond to asset price bubbles.
Economic Synopses