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Discussion Paper
Implications of a U.S. CBDC for International Payments and the Role of the Dollar
Technological advances in recent decades have brought about a wave of private-sector innovation in payments and have led central banks to explore a variety of improvements to their payment systems, including the possibility of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Survey evidence from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that over 90% of central banks are exploring CBDCs (Kosse & Mattei, 2022). The Federal Reserve is also exploring the implications of, and options for, introducing a CBDC.
Discussion Paper
A Brief Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
The size of the Federal Reserve's balance expanded dramatically from 2008 to 2022 and has recently begun to adjust as the Fed moves toward a policy of "ample" reserves. While this expansion was unprecedented in its speed and came after a long period of stability, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has risen and fallen and changed in composition over time. This note provides a graphical review of the evolution of the balance sheet from the Fed's founding in 1914 through 2025, with particular emphasis on how the balance sheet changed as the gold standard ended in the early 1970s, as the Fed ...
Discussion Paper
Measuring Cross-Border Securities Positions: Explaining Asymmetries between U.S. Treasury TIC and IMF PIP (formerly CPIS) Data
Understanding the effects of cross-border securities holdings depends critically on accurate data, and two significant data sources in this area are the U.S. Treasury’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) system and the IMF’s Portfolio Investment Positions by Counterpart Economy (PIP, formerly known as CPIS).
Discussion Paper
Measuring U.S. Cross-Border Securities Flows: Out With the Old, In with the New
As we have noted in the past, understanding the effects of capital flows across countries depends critically on accurate and comprehensive data. For the U.S., data on cross-border securities holdings and transactions are collected through the TIC (Treasury International Capital) data system.
Discussion Paper
Recent Euro-area Inflows into U.S. Bonds: Reconciling and Understanding New Data Sources
In this note we review the data on U.S. cross-border financial flows and positions with a focus on one question of current interest: have euro-area investors been increasing their holdings of U.S. securities since the possibility of European Central Bank quantitative easing (ECB QE) emerged in the latter half of 2014? The prospect of ECB QE, combined with the prospect of U.S. policy rate liftoff, suggested that U.S. interest rates would soon exceed euro-area rates by a wide margin, which might have provided an incentive for euro-area investors to seek higher-yielding U.S. assets, especially ...
Working Paper
Demand for U.S Banknotes at Home and Abroad: A Post-Covid Update
In principle, physical currency should be disappearing: payments are increasingly electronic, with new technologies emerging rapidly, and governments increasingly restrict large-denomination notes as a way to reduce crime and tax evasion. Nonetheless, demand for U.S. banknotes continues to grow, and consistently increases at times of crisis both within and outside the United States because dollar banknotes remain a desirable store of value and medium of exchange when local currency or bank deposits are inferior. Most recently, the COVID crisis resulted in historic increases in currency ...
Working Paper
Estimating the Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency in Circulation
The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury and the United States Secret Service (USSS), who are jointly responsible for U.S. banknote design, including security features, and production. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and USSS sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation in the United States. In addition, the paper presents figures on ...