Search Results
Journal Article
Using chain-weighted NIPA data
Journal Article
More life vs. more goods: explaining rising health expenditures
Are health expenditures rising for reasons other than waste or fraud? If so, do these reasons portend a continuation of this rapid pace of increase? Is there an end in sight? This Economic Letter draws on recent economic research (Hall and Jones 2004) to explore some possible answers to these questions. One of the perhaps surprising conclusions from this research is that the rising health share may reflect the natural course of economic growth: as we get richer and richer, one of the most valuable and productive opportunities for our spending is to purchase better health and longer lives.
Journal Article
The economic return to health expenditures
Journal Article
The fiscal problem of the 21st century
Journal Article
The future of the new economy
Conference Paper
Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions
Standard growth theory implies that steady-state growth in the presence of exponential declines in the prices of computers and other capital equipment requires a Cobb-Douglas production function. Conventional wisdom holds that capital shares are relatively constant, so that the Cobb-Douglas approach might be a good way to model growth. Unfortunately, this conventional wisdom is misguided. Capital shares exhibit substantial trends and fluctuations in many countries and in many industries. Taken together, these facts represent a puzzle for growth theory. This paper resolves the puzzle by (a) ...
Conference Paper
The value of life and the rise in health spending
Health care extends life. Over the past half century, Americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result. Debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending. We investigate an issue central to this debate: Is the growth of health spending the rational response to changing economic conditions - notably the growth of income per person? We develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case. Standard preferences - of the kind used widely in economics to ...
Working Paper
The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some ...