Search Results
Recent Trends in Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure
U.S. bank holding companies that have the largest exposure to commercial real estate share some common characteristics. Our blog post explains.
“Bought on Behalf” vs. “Purchased by”: What Counts for Inflation?
Goods and services bought on behalf of consumers, such as health care, are weighted differently in the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Job Quits, New-Business Applications and the Postpandemic Pace of U.S. Business Formation
This analysis examines the relationship between job quits and new business applications since the emergence of COVID-19 and its implications for U.S. business formation.
Working Paper
A Decomposition of the Phillips Curve’s Flattening
While the original papers on the inflation-unemployment relationship, i.e., the Phillips curve, studied aggregate data, a recent generation of work has moved to regional analysis. We estimate Phillips curves in the US based on regional data between 1958 and 2013, from which we can recover the national Phillips Curve. We find that the curves’ evolution over time is characterized by changing cross-region spillovers largely due to a subset of 1970s observations. We show that for these observations, regional inflation exhibits strong negative comovement with national unemployment even after ...
AI and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Historical Developments in Other Technologies
An analysis of the diffusion of PCs, smart devices, cloud computing and 3D printing suggests that AI may spread in a pattern similar to those of PCs and cloud computing.
What Are the Long-run Trade-offs of Rent-Control Policies?
While rent-control policies can mean more affordable housing for some, research shows they can also lead to a decline in the supply and quality of rental housing.
Working Paper
A High-Frequency Measure of Income Inequality
To identify shocks in VARs using short-run sign or exclusion restrictions, the highest-frequency data possible is usually preferred. For income inequality, there is tension between high frequency and high quality. Annual datasets that survey large numbers of people provide high-quality estimates of income. Higher frequency surveys generally provide a sparser sampling of individual income. Some previous studies have used the the higher frequency data, presumably to match the frequency necessary to identify the shock. Using data obtained from the higher frequency, lower respondant surveys might ...
Working Paper
Measuring The Effect of Shocks on Inequality: It's All About the Data
To identify shocks in VARs using short-run sign or exclusion restrictions, the highest frequency data possible is usually preferred. For income inequality, there is tension between high frequency and high quality. Annual datasets that survey large numbers of people provide high-quality estimates of income. Higher frequency surveys generally provide a sparser sampling of individual income. Some previous studies have used the higher frequency data, presumably to match the frequency necessary to identify the shock. Using data obtained from the higher frequency, lower respondent surveys might ...
Working Paper
Was the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge Mainly Supply Driven?
By December 2022, the price level of personal consumption expenditures on core goods and services had risen more than 10 percent over the preceding two years. This paper studies consumption price and quantity changes at the disaggregate level using a generalization of Shapiro’s (2024) inflation decomposition method. Categories with inflation and consumption growth innovations that positively co-move are labeled as experiencing current demand-pull inflation. Negative co-movement in the two innovations indicates current supply-push inflation. Category inflation is then decomposed into supply ...
Supply, Demand and the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge
A new method of tracking the prices and quantities of U.S. consumer expenditures provides insights into the 2021-22 surge in prices.