Search Results
Discussion Paper
Does wage inflation cause price inflation?
Is there any evidence to support the assumption that increased wages cause inflation? This study updates and expands earlier research into this question and finds little support for the view that higher wages cause higher prices. On the contrary, more evidence is found for higher prices leading to wage growth.
Working Paper
Risk sharing of disaggregate macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks
Comparing the degree to which idiosyncratic and disaggregate macro shocks (such as regional and industry shocks) are not shared in the economy provides greater understanding of why the economy lacks risk-sharing arrangements in specific areas and can suggest areas where the economy?s risk-sharing capability could be enhanced. The authors find that a negligible amount of risk (around 10 percent) is shared in the aggregate, about 50 percent is shared within regions and industries, while the remaining 40 percent is not shared with other households. These findings suggest that given the low level ...
Working Paper
Politics and exchange rate forecasts
Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models may be due to omission of political factors. We test this hypothesis by including political variables that capture party-specific, election-specific and candidate-specific characteristics. Surprisingly, we find our political model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting at one to twelve month horizons for the pound/dollar, mark/dollar, pound/mark and the trade-weighted dollar, mark, and pound exchange rates.
Working Paper
Risk sharing by households within and across regions and industries
Cochrane (1991) and Mace (1991) test if risk sharing across households is complete in the sense that household consumption moves one-for-one with aggregate consumption. In their studies the source of income risk is idiosyncratic, and agents can share risk across the entire economy. Using a sample of households from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), we explore whether individuals diversify the risk associated within their industries and regions, as well as across industries and regions. We find that there is stronger evidence of within region and industry risk sharing than across ...
Working Paper
An investigation into the magnitude of foreign conflicts
Working Paper
Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth
If economic time series behave asymmetrically, then an interpretation of economic fluctuations based on linear time series models could be misleading. Beaudry and Koop (1993) recently argued that for post war U.S. GDP data there exists a statistically significant difference in persistence between negative and positive shocks. Their finding, if true, would be quite interesting since it would bring a new perspective to the literature on business cycle, which has been dominated by two conflicting views: the trend-reverting view of Blanchard (1981) and the permanent view of Campbell and Mankiw ...
Working Paper
Is the political business cycle for real?
This paper's macroeconomic model combines features from both real and political business cycle models. It augments a standard real business cycle tax model by allowing for varying levels of government partisanship and competence in order to replicate two important empirical regularities: First, that on average the economy expands early under Democratic presidents and contracts early under Republican presidents. Second, that presidents whose parties successfully retain the presidency have stronger-than-average growth in the second half of their terms. The model generates both of these features ...