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Conference Paper
Which marbles?: comments on \\"Losing our marbles in the new century? The great rebalancing in historical perspective\\" by C. M. Meissner and A. N. Taylor
Meissner and Taylor do a splendid job of making the history of the last great globalization relevant to the current great rebalancing. In their admirably understated way, they have argued that there is no credible evidence supporting the status quo, and have shown that the savings and investment patterns that mark today?s US current account deficit pose more problems for adjustment than were faced when the offshoot countries reversed their current account deficits so painlessly a century ago. I agree with them on both counts, and have learned much from their evidence and explanations.
Conference Paper
Multicountry modeling of financial markets
Working Paper
Domestic and cross-border consequences of U.S. macroeconomic policies
This paper reviews empirical evidence about the effects of changes in U.S. monetary policy and fiscal policy that has been accumulated during recent years in a series of collaborative research projects involving a variety of global macroeconometric models. The paper also considers, in particular, the consequences over the next five to six years for key U.S. and foreign economic variables of a significant U.S. fiscal contraction. The quantitative implications of both alternative fiscal spending and tax actions, and alternative treatments of expectations (adaptive versus rational) are analyzed. ...
Conference Paper
Demographic changes and international factor mobility