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Discussion Paper
Following Borrowers through Forbearance
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-11-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. This increase marked a reversal from the modest decline in the second quarter of 2020, a downturn driven by a sharp contraction in credit card balances. In the third quarter, credit card balances declined again, even as consumer spending recovered somewhat; meanwhile, mortgage originations came in at a robust $1.049 trillion, the highest level since 2003. Many of the efforts ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201117

Discussion Paper
Household Borrowing in Historical Perspective
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2017-05-17)
Today, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2017. The report shows a rise in household debt balances in the quarter of $149 billion, the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since the long period of deleveraging following the Great Recession. As of March 31, 2017, household debt balances stood at $12.73 trillion, surpassing the previous 2008 peak and hitting a level 14 percent above the trough seen in the second quarter of 2013. With this report’s release, we’re adding two new charts which ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170517

Discussion Paper
What Happens during Mortgage Forbearance?
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2021-05-19)
As we discussed in our previous post, millions of mortgage borrowers have entered forbearance since the beginning of the pandemic, and more than 2 million remain in a program as of March 2021. In this post, we use our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) data to examine borrower behavior while in forbearance. The credit bureau data are ideal for this purpose because they allow us to follow borrowers over time, and to connect developments on the mortgage with those on other credit products. We find that forbearance results in reduced mortgage delinquencies and is associated with increased paydown of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210519b

Discussion Paper
Just Released: Press Briefing on Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment Trends, 2015
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Lee, Donghoon (2015-04-16)
This morning, Jamie McAndrews, the Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke to the press about the economic recovery, and his speech was followed by a special briefing by New York Fed economists on student loans. Here, we provide a short summary of the student loan briefing.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150416

Report
The supply side of the housing boom and bust of the 2000s
Sporn, John; Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Peach, Richard (2012)
The boom and subsequent bust in housing construction and prices over the 2000s is widely regarded as a principal contributor to the Financial Panic of 2007 and the subsequent Great Recession. As of this writing, housing market activity remains at depressed levels as the economy slowly resolves the legacy of excess supply and sharply lower prices. Over 2.6 million foreclosures have been completed since 2008 and 1.9 million foreclosures are in process. Much has been written about the demand side of this pronounced housing cycle, in particular, the innovations in mortgage finance and the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 556

Discussion Paper
Breaking Down Auto Loan Performance
Mangrum, Daniel; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2025-02-13)
Debt balances continued to rise at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2024, and delinquencies, particularly for auto loans and credit cards, remained elevated, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Auto loan balances have grown steadily since 2011, expanding by $48 billion in 2024. This increase reflects a steady inflow of newly originated auto loan balances, which in 2024 were boosted primarily by originations to very prime borrowers (those with credit scores over 760) while originations to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250213

Discussion Paper
Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-08-08)
Total household debt balances increased by $16 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This reflects a modest rise from the first quarter. Credit card balances saw the largest increase of all debt types—$45 billion—and now stand at $1.03 trillion, surpassing $1 trillion in nominal terms for the first time in the series history. After a sharp contraction in the first year of the pandemic, credit card balances have seen seven quarters of year-over-year growth. The ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230808

Speech
Presentation by Andrew F. Haughwout at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference
Haughwout, Andrew F. (2024-04-18)
Presentation on the economic overview delivered by Andrew F. Haughwout, Director of Household and Public Policy Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This presentation was delivered at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.
Speech

Report
The financial crisis at the kitchen table: trends in household debt and credit
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon; Brown, Meta; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2010)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Consumer Credit Panel, created from a sample of U.S. consumer credit reports, is an ongoing panel of quarterly data on individual and household debt. The panel shows a substantial run-up in total consumer indebtedness between the first quarter of 1999 and the peak in the third quarter of 2008, followed by a steady decline through the third quarter of 2010. During the same period, delinquencies rose sharply: Delinquent balances peaked at the close of 2009 and then began to decline again. This paper documents these trends and discusses their sources. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 480

Discussion Paper
An Update on the Health of the U.S. Consumer
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; McCarthy, Jonathan; Melcangi, Davide; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-10-18)
The strength of consumer spending so far this year has surprised most private forecasters. In this post, we examine the factors behind this strength and the implications for consumption in the coming quarters. First, we revisit the measurement of “excess savings” that households have accumulated since 2020, finding that the estimates of remaining excess savings are very sensitive to assumptions about measurement, estimation period, and trend type, which renders them less useful. We thus broaden the discussion to other aspects of the household balance sheet. Using data from the New York ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231018a

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