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Journal Article
Residual Seasonality in Some Components of PCE Inflation
Policymakers and economists sometimes examine the components of inflation to better understand inflation’s behavior. We study the primary components of core PCE inflation for evidence of residual seasonality. To do this, we examine the average one-month percent changes in three categories of seasonally adjusted price data that have been discussed by policymakers: goods excluding food and energy, services excluding energy and housing, and housing. Inflation for goods excluding food and energy and services excluding energy and housing tends to be economically and statistically higher in ...
Journal Article
Who's Driving Medicaid's Enrollment Growth?
Since 1990, Medicaid outlays per capita have increased fourfold, driven primarily by enrollment growth rather than rising costs per enrollee. The program, which has served since its inception as a safety net for the elderly, the disabled, and children living in poverty, has grown over time; in 2024, more than one in four Americans was enrolled. With new community engagement requirements poised to reshape the program, understanding what demographics are driving Medicaid's enrollment growth can provide insights into how the program is likely to evolve going forward. We show that children and ...