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Journal Article
Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest
Journal Article
Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts
The development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has brought significant structural change to the energy sector, increasing energy production and decreasing net energy imports. Future changes in energy policy or technology could have even larger effects on energy exports and thus overall exports. As a result, distinguishing energy from non-energy components of trade becomes important for forecasts in both the near and longer term. Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie introduce models separating energy from the non-energy components of trade to examine how changes in energy production ...
Working Paper
The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990
Journal Article
Is the United States too dependent on foreign capital?
Working Paper
Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.
Journal Article
Evaluating monetary policy at the zero lower bound.
Journal Article
Evaluating monetary policy at the zero lower bound
Working Paper
The international role of the dollar