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Working Paper
Predicting Benchmarked US State Employment Data in Realtime
US payroll employment data come from a survey of nonfarm business establishments and are therefore subject to revisions. While the revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to substantially alter assessments of current economic conditions. Researchers and policymakers must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are "benchmarked" against administrative data on the universe of workers some 5 to 16 months after the reference period. This paper develops and tests a state space model that predicts ...
Journal Article
A Report on Economic Conditions in the Louisville Zone
Journal Article
A Report on Economic Conditions in the Memphis Zone
Journal Article
A Report on Economic Conditions in the Little Rock Zone
Journal Article
A Report on Economic Conditions in the St. Louis Zone
Journal Article
Federal Reserve assets: understanding the pieces of the pie
One way to examine the composition of assets on the Fed's balance sheet is to group them according to the objectives of the programs used to acquire them.
Journal Article
The current recession: how bad is it?
In a recession, the severity of the decline is just as relevant as the duration of the recession.
Journal Article
The Evolution of St. Louis’s Wage Distribution
There is less wage inequality in the St. Louis MSA than in the nation.
Journal Article
What Are Teachers Really Paid? Adjusting Wages for Regional Differences in Cost of Living
Cost of living explains only some of the differences in teacher pay.