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Author:Garriga, Carlos 

Speech
Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation

May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.
Speech , Paper 200

Journal Article
Where is the slack in the labor market?

Current slack in the economy may be caused primarily by the construction sector.
Economic Synopses , Issue 13

Journal Article
Boom & gloom in housing markets: the sequel

National Economic Trends , Issue May

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock

Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Homeownership Experience of Minorities During the Great Recession

It has been argued that during the Great Recession, wealth losses were more concentrated for college-educated Black and Hispanic families than for White and Asian college-educated families and their non-college-educated Black and Hispanic peers. This article explores the extent to which the homeownership experience for families who purchased homes between 2004 and 2008 is a potentially important factor in explaining this finding. During the housing boom, the increase in homeownership for Blacks and Hispanics was very similar, but the second group had a smaller decline. Despite these ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 1 , Pages 139-167

Working Paper
Nominal rigidities in debt and product markets

Standard models used for monetary policy analysis rely on sticky prices. Recently, the literature started to explore also nominal debt contracts. Focusing on mortgages, this paper compares the two channels of transmission within a common framework. The sticky price channel is dominant when shocks to the policy interest rate are temporary, the mortgage channel is important when the shocks are persistent. The first channel has significant aggregate effects but small redistributive effects. The opposite holds for the second channel. Using yield curve data decomposed into temporary and persistent ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-17

Working Paper
The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data

We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-007

Working Paper
The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice

The objective of this paper is to understand how loan structure affects (i) the borrower?s selection of a mortgage contract and (ii) the aggregate economy. We develop a quantitative equilibrium theory of mortgage choice where households can choose from a menu of long-term (nominal) mortgage loans. The model accounts for observed patterns in housing consumption, ownership, and portfolio allocations. We find that the loan structure is a quantitatively significant factor in a household?s housing finance decision. The model suggests that the mortgage structure preferred by a household is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-024

Working Paper
Generational policy and the macroeconomic measurement of tax incidence

In this paper we show that the generational accounting framework used in macroeconomics to measure tax incidence can, in some cases, yield inaccurate measurements of the tax burden across age cohorts. This result is very important for policy evaluation, because it shows that the selection of tax policies designed to change generational imbalances could be misleading. We illustrate this problem in the context of a Social Security reform where we show how fiscal policy can affect the intergenerational gap across cohorts without impacting the distribution of welfare. We provide a more accurate ...
Working Papers , Paper 2009-003

Working Paper
Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate

After three decades of being relatively constant, the homeownership rate increased over the period 1994 to 2005 to attain record highs. The objective of this paper is to account for the observed boom in ownership by examining the role played changes in demographic factors and innovations in the mortgage market which lessened downpayment requirements. To measure the aggregate and distributional impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. We find that the long-run importance of the introduction of new mortgage products for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2007-034

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