Search Results
Overemployed Workers? Trends on Multiple Jobholders
After tumbling during the pandemic, the share of employed people holding more than one job has recovered to its pre-pandemic level.
Journal Article
Lending standards in mortgage markets
While the data seem to suggest that lenders did the right thing by tightening standards and increasing denials...the ongoing financial crisis suggests that they did not tighten them enough.
Compensation Patterns of Overemployed Workers
An analysis showed U.S. workers with multiple jobs had on average slightly higher annual earnings but lower hourly pay than workers with a single job.
Journal Article
Withdrawal history, private information, and bank runs
This paper provides a simple two-depositor, two-stage model to understand how a bank?s withdrawal history affects an individual?s decision about withdrawals, which could possibly trigger bank runs. Individual depositors have private information about their personal consumption types and receive noisy private signals about the quality of the bank?s portfolio. Depositors make publicly observable withdrawal decisions in sequence. Computed examples indicate that the optimal contract contingent on withdrawal histories can tolerate bank runs. These runs are triggered by unfavorable signals about a ...
Journal Article
Inflation, Part 1: What Is it, Exactly?
Inflation measures the rate of change of a price index over time.
Journal Article
Intertemporal discounting and policy selection
The choice of the intertemporal discount rate affects the measurement of the tax burden of different age cohorts. Small changes in the discount rate affect not only the magnitude of the measured changes, but also the ranking of policies using that metric. The authors illustrate this problem in the context of neutral Social Security reforms. By construction, these policies do not change allocations; hence, they also do not change welfare. However, depending on the choice of the discount rate, one could reach different (and possibly opposite) conclusions regarding the desirability of such ...
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Journal Article
Measuring (Most of) the Slack in the Labor Market
Compared with previous recessions, the manufacturing sector does not show much slack. The construction sector, on the other hand, is below potential.
Journal Article
Where is the slack in the labor market?
Current slack in the economy may be caused primarily by the construction sector.
Speech
Demographics, redistribution, and optimal inflation
May 30, 2012. "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation," with Carlos Garriga and Christopher J. Waller. Presented by Christopher Waller at the 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance.