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Journal Article
Commodity prices and monetary policy reform
Journal Article
Will the real price of housing drop sharply in the 1990s?
Journal Article
A closer look at the employment cost index
Labor costs have recently come under scrutiny by policymakers, business economists, and financial market participants. The primary concern has been that tight labor markets might lead to faster compensation growth and, ultimately, to upward pressure on general inflation. The employment cost index (ECI) has received particularly close attention because many analysts consider it to be one of the best measures of labor cost inflation. Other analysts, however, have questioned whether the ECI and other labor cost measures are useful in inflation forecasting. One reason for doubting the ECI's ...
Journal Article
Should the decline in the personal saving rate be a cause for concern?
The personal saving rate has received particular attention recently because saving was negative in 2005 for the first time since the Great Depression. Although saving declined in other developed countries during this period, the U.S. decline was more pronounced than in most of these countries. ; A major concern is whether U.S. households are providing adequately for long-term needs, such as future retirement and medical expenses. In addition, low personal saving has created short-run concerns that a sudden increase in the saving rate could reduce growth of consumer spending, real output, and ...
Journal Article
Social Security privatization: balancing efficiency and fairness
This article examines these fundamental issues of economic efficiency and fairness that should be weighed when considering Social Security privatization. The first section summarizes the challenges to the current system and outlines various options for reform. The second section explains how privatization could improve economic efficiency, and briefly considers the difficult issue of the transition costs in moving from the current system to full privatization. The third section discusses important issues of fairness within and across generations. Any decision to privatize Social Security will ...
Journal Article
Has the stock market crash reduced consumer spending?
Some forecasters expected that the October 1987 stock market collapse would seriously lower GNP growth by curtailing consumer spending. After declining in October, however, consumer spending has grown moderately. This relatively small effect is consistent with empirical studies showing that the stock market has only a modest impact on consumer spending.
Journal Article
Policy options to improve the U.S. standard of living
The U.S. standard of living has been slipping relative to living standards in other industrial nations. While there is no easy road to national wealth, reducing the federal budget deficit appears to be the most dependable policy to enhance the future U.S. living standard.
Journal Article
Consumer confidence after September 11
The terrorist attacks on September 11 dealt a serious blow to the U.S. economy. The damage included the tragic loss of human life, massive property destruction, and disruptions to the travel and shipping industries. But immediately after the attacks, many observers also worried about the possible harm to business and consumer confidence. Although the effects on business confidence are hard to measure, regular surveys of households make it easier to assess the effects on consumer confidence. These surveys show that consumer confidence was surprisingly resilient.> Faced with this resilience, ...
Journal Article
The effect of U.S. defense cuts on the standard of living