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Journal Article
Tracking Labor Market Stress
State-level unemployment claims can provide a real-time measure of national labor market conditions and the overall state of the economy. A rapid and widespread buildup of stress in state labor markets usually signals the start of a recession. In mid-2024, some widely followed indicators of recession risk flashed red. However, analysis of state-level data indicates that labor market declines were not as widespread as they had been in previous recessions. Applying this analysis to the latest data suggests that the labor market has remained stable through mid-2025.
Journal Article
Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements
Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have direct effects not only on companies in the sectors involved but also indirect effects on overall demand. Investors expected declines in corporate profits to be persistent both in the United States and abroad. The U.S. dollar depreciated against other safe-haven currencies, which points to investors reallocating their portfolios away from the United States and toward other markets.