Search Results
Working Paper
The Interactions of Social Norms about Climate Change: Science, Institutions and Economics
We study the evolution of interest in climate change among different actors within the population and how the interest of these actors affects one another. First, we document the evolution of interest for each actor individually, and then we provide a model of cross-influences between them. We estimate this model using a Vector Autoregression (VAR). We measure interest among the general public, the European Parliament, central banks, general interest science journals, and economics journals by creating a Climate Change Index (CCI) based on mentions of climate change in these domains. Except ...
When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability
An analysis of housing and household income data from 2000 to 2023 finds that in most U.S. counties, the cost of buying a house has outpaced local incomes.
America Underbuilt Inc.: The Supply Side of the U.S. Housing Challenge
This analysis finds that the U.S. has underbuilt housing for decades. The persistent supply shortfall amid growing demand drives today’s affordability crisis.
Journal Article
The Determinants of Mortgage Denial
We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018–2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022–2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold—below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims—is ...
Working Paper
The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data
We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is ...
Working Paper
Prior Knowledge, Module Design, and Student Dropout in Online K-12 Education
We examine student dropout in online K-12 education coursework using administrative data for 442,000 students, 64 economics and personal finance modules, and 2.1 million module assignments between 2014 and 2025. We find that module length, prior knowledge, embedded formative assessments, and school district demographics independently predict whether students complete assigned modules. Each additional page is associated with a 0.24-percentage-point decrease in completion probability, but this relationship is 30 percent weaker for students with above-median prior knowledge. Embedded knowledge ...