Search Results
Journal Article
Okun's law revisited: should we worry about low unemployment?
A review of the connection between labor resource utilization and the growth/unemployment correlation summarized by Okun's law, showing that the instability of that relationship, particularly over short time horizons, has important implications for monetary policy.
Working Paper
Reducing working hours: a general equilibrium analysis
An examination of the effects of restricting the weekly hours of workers in a heterogeneous-agent, general-equilibrium framework. The main findings are that restricting weekly hours increases employment substantially, but may also lead to large declines in wages, productivity, output, and consumption, and can increase the wage disparity between skilled and unskilled workers.
Journal Article
Where has all the income gone?
Middle American incomes rise substantially even while inequality increases
Working Paper
Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Evidence from U.S. Cities
This paper makes two straightforward points that we argue are central to understanding the literature and debate surrounding the stability of the Phillips curve. First, the endogeneity of monetary policy implies that aggregate data are largely uninformative as to the existence of a stable relationship between unemployment and future inflation. Second, if the NAIRU model is assumed to be true, regional data can be used to identify the structural relationship between unemployment and future inflation. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a ...
Journal Article
Reducing working hours
Journal Article
County employment: shocks and rebounds
Lots of counties experience major job loss, but why they do and how well they recover is more of a mystery
Working Paper
The Band pass filter
The "ideal" band-pass filter can be used to isolate the component of a time series that lies within a particular band of frequencies, but applying this filter requires a data set of infinite length. In practice, some sort of approximation is needed. Using projections, the authors derive approximations that are optimal when the time-series representations underlying the raw data have a unit root, or are stationary about a trend.
Journal Article
Business cycles and long-term growth: lessons from Minnesota
A look at state economic performance offers a broader message.
Journal Article
Price stability: is a tough central bank enough?
What is the best way to achieve price stability? Conventional wisdom says that a tough, independent central bank is all that is necessary. However, a new view?the fiscal theory of the price level?argues that an appropriate fiscal policy is also required, no matter how tough the central bank may be. The choice of the fiscal theory versus the conventional view has significant implications for the way central banks do business.
Journal Article
Reducing working hours: American workers' salvation?
An examination of the basic rationale behind policies intended to reduce the standard workweek, and an explanation of why these policies are likely to be less effective at boosting employment than proponents claim.