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Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on ...
Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock
Before the pandemic, shares of delinquencies had already been growing in consumer finance loans, credit card debt, student loans and auto loans. And delinquencies can vary greatly among states.
Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity during 2020 in the U.S. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for ...
Journal Article
Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
An analysis of cross-country data sheds light on the link between finance and economic development.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
Journal Article
The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries
Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.
Journal Article
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy
Social distancing directly hurts industries that rely on face-to-face contact. But the spillover effect is even affecting industries less dependent on such contact.