Search Results
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Journal Article
Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context
Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.
Journal Article
Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
Journal Article
A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy
New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time
A novel index of physical contact exposure helps to identify the industries that are the most contact-intensive and might reopen later, as well as lower-contact industries that could reopen sooner.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
Journal Article
The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries
Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.
Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on ...
Journal Article
The Geography of Housing Market Liquidity During the Great Recession
Using detailed micro data at the ZIP code level, this article explores the regional variation in housing market performance to account for the severity of the Great Recession. The granularity of the data, relative to a more traditional analysis at the county level, is useful for evaluating the performance of the housing market because credit and local macroeconomic variables are tied to housing valuations. The deterioration of the ability to transact (buy and sell) housing units, often referred to as housing liquidity, is an important link that connects housing outcomes with real and credit ...