Search Results
Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations
Some jobs certainly require more close interaction with other folks than other jobs. Which occupations are the most interactive, and which states have higher shares of these jobs?
Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity during 2020 in the U.S. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for ...
Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
While COVID-19-related restrictions in 2020 spurred short-term rises in unemployment, states with stricter measures saw faster labor market recoveries.
Journal Article
Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context
Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.
Journal Article
The Role of Credit in the Exit of Firms Across U.S. Industries During the Great Recession
During the Great Recession, firms in industries with higher shares of delinquent firms were more likely to go out of business.
Employment Losses in Contact-Intensive Industries
The COVID-19 pandemic has had uneven effects on employment across industries. Nonessential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses.
Journal Article
Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.
Journal Article
A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy
New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.
House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing
Lower housing demand due to quarantine orders, slowing price growth and mortgage originations, and a historically high housing supply are all hitting the economy at the same time.