Search Results
Working Paper
The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates
This paper uses a natural experiment to measure the causal effect of an expected debt-financed fiscal stimulus on interest rates. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the expected US debt-to-GDP ratio leads to an increase of about 1-2 basis points in the longer-run neutral rate (r∗) and of about 2–3 basis points in the 10-year Treasury term premium. Our results validate estimates from a common time-series approach that regresses long-term forward interest rates on long-term projections of government debt, where the exclusion restriction does not apply.
Discussion Paper
Bankers’ Banks and their Role in the Federal Funds Market
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) large-scale asset purchases fundamentally reshaped the U.S. monetary policy implementation framework. Before 2008, the Fed operated under a scarce-reserves regime, steering the federal funds rate through daily open market operations.
Discussion Paper
A Decomposition of Balance Sheet Reduction
Since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have used the size and composition of their balance sheets to influence financial conditions and economic activity when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. A common measure of the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is the System Open Market Account (SOMA) securities holdings expressed as a share of nominal gross domestic product (NGDP).