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Working Paper
A welfare rationale for multiple reserve requirements
Working Paper
On government credit programs
Credit rationing is a common feature of most developing economies. In response to it, the governments of these countries often operate extensive credit programs and lend, either directly or indirectly, to the private sector. We analyze the macroeconomic consequences of a typical government credit program in a small open economy. We show that such programs increase long-run production if the economy is in a development trap and that such programs often lead to endogenously arising aggregate volatility. On the other hand, they may eliminate certain indeterminacies created by endogenous credit ...
Working Paper
Debt maturity, risk, and asymmetric information
We test the implications of Flannery?s (1986) and Diamond?s (1991) models concerning the effects of risk and asymmetric information in determining debt maturity, and we examine the overall importance of informational asymmetries in debt maturity choices. We employ data from more than 6,000 commercial loans from 53 large U.S. banks. Our results for low-risk firms are consistent with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of Diamond?s model and with much of the empirical literature. Our findings also suggest a strong ...
Working Paper
Socially excessive bankruptcy costs and the benefits of interest rate ceilings on loans
The authors study the capital accumulation and welfare implications of ceilings on loan interest rates in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Binding ceilings on loan rates reduce the probability of bankruptcy. Lower bankruptcy rates result in lower bankruptcy and liquidation costs. The authors state conditions under which the resources freed by this cost-saving result increase the steady state capital stock, reduce steady state credit rationing, and raise the steady state welfare of all agents. The authors also argue that the conditions stated are likely to be satisfied in practice. ...
Journal Article
Financial repression and economic development
Working Paper
Barriers to international capital flows: who should erect them and how big should they be?
Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing globalization. Recent events in Latin America and Asia have caused many in policy-making circles to question whether this trend should be wholly, or at least partially, reversed. It is commonly argued that?at a minimum?countries should be given the discretion to erect such barriers, at least in certain circumstances. Recent events, then, have forced a rethinking of the desirability of unrestricted world capital flows. The general presumption appears to be that the "victims" of highly volatile capital flows should ...
Working Paper
Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic
In this paper the authors study the stability properties of the alternative steady-state equilibria that arise in a neoclassical production model that delivers pleasant monetarist arithmetic. They show that if the government?s monetary policy rule involves a fixed money supply growth rate, then ?pleasant arithmetic? steady states?steady states from which a permanent increase in the money growth and inflation rates is associated with a permanent decrease in the real interest rate and a permanent increase in the level of output?are dynamically stable.
Working Paper
Are there optimal multiple reserve requirements?
A number of developing countries have adopted deficit-finance regimes involving multiple reserve requirements. One question the previous literature on this phenomenon has not addressed is whether multiple-reserves regimes can improve on regimes involving single-currency-reserve requirements if the policy settings of the latter regimes are assumed to be chosen optimally. We find that a "conventional" multiple-reserves regime--a regime with positive nominal rates on reservable bonds--cannot Pareto-improve an optimal single-currency-regime but can, in some cases, increase social welfare over ...
Journal Article
Fully funded social security: Now you see it, now you don't?
Governments of countries around the world, including the United States, are considering implementing social security reform programs. In most cases, one of the principal goals of the reform program is to convert a pay-as-you-go social security system into a fully funded system. Most economists believe that the long-run macroeconomic benefits of a successful transition to a fully funded system are likely to be large relative to the benefits from social security reforms of other types. ; The authors of this article describe the basic differences between pay-as-you-go and fully funded systems ...