Journal Article
How credible are capital spending surveys as forecasts?
Erceg, John J.; Anderson, Gerald H. (1990-12)
A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Forecasting turning points with leading indicators
Erceg, John J.; Anderson, Gerald H. (1989-10)
An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Productivity, costs, and international competitiveness
Bernard, Theodore G.; Erceg, John J. (1988-11)
A review of how moderation in U.S. manufacturing labor costs and record growth in manufacturing productivity have helped to improve the U.S. trade deficit in recent years, and an evaluation of how well domestic producers have performed relative to their major trading partners.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Inflation and soft landing prospects
Erceg, John J. (1989-07)
A presentation of the outlook for the economy through 1990 by discussants at the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable meeting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jul

Journal Article
An anemic recovery?
Erceg, John J.; Leovic, Lydia K. (1991-08)
A report on the June 14, 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which the consensus forecast was for a mild gain in output growth in the early stages of economic expansion and for a subdued recovery in the consumer spending, housing, and capital goods sectors.
Economic Commentary , Issue Aug

Journal Article
The outlook after the oil shock: between Iraq and a soft place
Erceg, John J.; Leovic, Lydia K. (1990-10)
A summation of the September 14, 1990, meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which panelists discussed the economic outlook in light of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
How soft a landing?
Erceg, John J.; Nickels, Paul J. (1989-11)
A summation of the outlook of 30 economists at the October 20, 1989 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Federal budget deficits: sources and forecasts
Bernard, Theodore G.; Erceg, John J. (1988-03)
An examination of two different government forecasts of the five-year federal budget outlook, both of which show persistent large deficits, and a recommendation for additional policy actions in order to achieve annual deficit targets.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
The business cycle, investment and a wayward M2: a midyear review
Erceg, John J.; Bryan, Michael F. (1992-07)
A summary of the June 12, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which 22 panelists concurred that steady and moderate growth in the economy can be expected through late 1993; includes discussions on business fixed investment, monetary growth, and business cycle theory.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Reappraising the 1987-88 outlook
Erceg, John J.; Murmann, William G. (1987-06)
A discussion of the expectations of 25 economists participating in the Fourth Federal Reserve District's Economic Roundtable, featuring their predictions for the overall economy and their comments on the auto industry, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the prospects for international trade.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun