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Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Journal Article
Survey says...
Journal Article
Look who's working now
What Is the Phillips Curve (and Why Has It Flattened)?
Historically, an inverse relationship seems to have existed between unemployment and inflation. Does it still exist? And why does this matter?
Journal Article
Barreling down the road to recession?
A Soft Landing for the Economy: What It Means and What Data to Look At
When the FOMC tightens monetary policy, it can raise the question of whether a 'soft landing' is possible for the economy. What data can help answer that question?
The Differences between Prices and Inflation Explained
If inflation is lower than it was a few years ago, why are prices still higher than before? An explainer focuses on prices vs. inflation and other aspects of price increases.
Journal Article
When do recessions begin and end?
With the funds rate driven to levels far below its target, the FOMC had no recourse but to adjust the target accordingly.
Journal Article
Hard 'core' inflation
Using Price Indexes to Measure the Inflation Rate
The inflation rate can be estimated using a price index, which gives a sense of how overall prices in the economy are evolving.