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Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield ...
Journal Article
Survey says...
Journal Article
Look who's working now
What Is the Phillips Curve (and Why Has It Flattened)?
Historically, an inverse relationship seems to have existed between unemployment and inflation. Does it still exist? And why does this matter?
Journal Article
Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District
Hernndez-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area [MSA]-level data are summed to yield ...
Journal Article
Barreling down the road to recession?
A Soft Landing for the Economy: What It Means and What Data to Look At
When the FOMC tightens monetary policy, it can raise the question of whether a 'soft landing' is possible for the economy. What data can help answer that question?
Working Paper
Where is an oil shock?
Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question ?What is an oil shock?? and has concluded that oil-price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the US economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil-price shocks by addressing the question Where is an oil shock? , the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil-price shocks?they are ...
The Differences between Prices and Inflation Explained
If inflation is lower than it was a few years ago, why are prices still higher than before? An explainer focuses on prices vs. inflation and other aspects of price increases.