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Working Paper
A new interpretation of the coordination problem and its empirical significance
In this paper, we discuss a new interpretation of what might be meant by the "coordination" of policies; in this interpretation, the policymakers are selecting a noncooperative solution rather than a cooperative solution. The new interpretation is suggested by the fact that games typically have a large number of Nash solutions, and players are not indifferent as to which occurs. The multiplicity of solutions may be due to information sharing and surveillance, the choice of policy instruments, or the adoption of reputational strategies in repeated versions of the game. The "coordination" ...
Working Paper
A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls
We propose a monthly measure of the intensity of capital controls across 29 emerging markets. Our measure, which is based on restrictions on foreign ownership of equities, provides information on the extent and evolution of financial liberalization. Using the measure, we show that a complete liberalization results in a much sharper decrease in the cost of capital than previously reported, but following a partial liberalization the cost of capital increases. Moreover, the more complete the liberalization is, the greater are the subsequent exchange rate appreciation and capital inflows.
Working Paper
Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia.
We assess links between China and the rest of emerging Asia. Some commentators have argued that China?s apparent devaluation in 1994 may have contributed to the Asian financial crisis. We argue that the devaluation was not economically important: The more-relevant exchange rate was a floating rate that was not devalued, and high Chinese inflation has led to a very sharp real appreciation of the currency. Although in principle, export competition with China could nevertheless have placed pressure on other Asian exporters, we argue that the striking feature of the data is the common movement ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy independence in the ERM: was there any?
Recently proposals for introducing greater exchange rate fixity into the behavior of key exchange rates have become fashionable. One proposal, for example, suggests that a target zone arrangement for the dollar, mark and yen would represent a desirable reform of the international monetary system. The question we seek to address in this paper is how much monetary independence is likely to be conferred on a country participating in such an arrangement. Recent research for the Classical gold standard has suggested that even with a rigidly fixed exchange rate system there is still some scope for ...
Working Paper
Optimal currency basket in a world of generalized floating : an application to the nordic countries
The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal weights for a currency basket taking into consideration the objective of the policymaker. We carefully distinguish between the two terms: effective exchange rate index and currency basket, which are often used interchangeably in the literature. In general, our analysis is an extension of the work of Branson-Katseli and Lipschitz-Sundararajan and then applied to the Nordic countries. We use the policy objective of minimizing fluctuation in export production and illustrate our results using Norway, Sweden and Finland. The weights we derive create ...
Working Paper
Alternative approaches to real exchange rates and real interest rates: three up and three down
This paper examines the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates using three different approaches across four currencies and two horizons with 20 years of data. Each approach gives some encouragement that this relationship might hold, but each approach also encounters problems establishing the form or usefulness of the relationship. On balance, this paper contributes to the literature by finding more encouraging results than in earlier studies, but it still remains to be demonstrated that the real exchange rate-real interest rate relationship is the linchpin to ...
Working Paper
U.S. monetary policy and econometric modeling: tales from the FOMC transcripts 1984-1991
This paper uses the transcripts from the FOMC meetings to characterize the interactions between policymakers and macro models in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy. We develop a taxonomy of these interactions and present two case studies. The first case focuses on the debate on the choice of monetary target and the second case focuses on the 1990/1991 recession. The analysis reveals that U.S. monetary policy relies on models for information. Models give estimates of both the outlook and the response of the economy to policy changes. Models also evolve to recognize the changing context in ...