Working Paper
The Sine Aggregatio Approach to Applied Macro
Conley, Timothy G.; Dupor, Bill; Ebsim, Mahdi (2022-11-11)
We develop a method to use disaggregate data to conduct causal inference in macroeconomics. The approach permits one to infer the aggregate effect of a macro treatment using regional outcome data and a valid instrument. We estimate a macro effect without (sine) the aggregation (aggregatio) of the outcome variable. We exploit cross-equation parameter restrictions to increase precision relative to traditional, aggregate series estimates and provide a method to assess robustness to departures from these restrictions. We illustrate our method via estimating the jobs effect of oil price changes ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-014

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-04-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on firm borrowing costs have been heterogeneous, with some sectors being more affected than others.
On the Economy

How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home?
Ebsim, Mahdi; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-03-23)
Sorting workers by occupation and income helps shed light on who is more likely to be able to work remotely.
On the Economy

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-06-12)
The cost of borrowing rose for most firms during the pandemic-related disruption of financial markets, but firms with greater liquidity have had smaller increases in credit spreads.
On the Economy

Journal Article
What Is Driving Student Debt in the Eighth District?
Kozlowski, Julian; Ebsim, Mahdi (2019)
Tuition appears to be a bigger driver of student debt growth in the Eighth District than in the U.S. as a whole.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 2

Working Paper
A Local-Spillover Decomposition of the Causal Effect of U.S. Defense Spending Shocks
McCrory, Peter B.; Ebsim, Mahdi; Dupor, Bill; Conley, Timothy G.; Li, Jingchao (2020-06-16)
This paper decomposes the causal effect of government defense spending into: (i) a local (or direct) effect, and (ii) a spillover (or indirect) effect. Using state-level defense spending data, we show that a negative cross-state spillover effect explains the existing simultaneous findings of a low aggregate multiplier and a high local multiplier. We show that enlisting disaggregate data improves the precision of aggregate effect estimates, relative to using aggregate time series alone. Moreover, we compare two-step efficient GMM with two alternative moment weighting approaches used in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-014

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance across Sectors and Firms
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-05-11)
Corporate bond spreads widened when COVID-19 initially began spreading, then spreads stabilized. How have spreads fared across individual sectors and issuances from the same firm?
On the Economy

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-04-09)
How have the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent monetary policy response affected the corporate bond market?
On the Economy

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts
Ebsim, Mahdi; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-04-30)
With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

Credit Spreads during the Financial Crisis and COVID-19
Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ebsim, Mahdi (2021-02-08)
Corporate bond credit spreads widened during both the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. How did spreads respond to policy actions?
On the Economy