Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Community Banks Have Maintained Profitability in a High-Interest Rate Environment
Dzholos, Mariia (2025-04-16)
Two-thirds of community banks have maintained their profitability—measured by net interest margins—since interest rates began increasing in 2022. More profitable banks have distinguished themselves by generating both higher asset returns and lower funding costs. Community banks with higher asset returns have achieved them primarily by rebalancing their asset holdings, while community banks with lower funding costs have more stable, low-cost deposit bases on average.
Economic Bulletin

Journal Article
Higher Tariffs Might Have Created Headwinds to Employment Growth in 2025
Matschke, Johannes; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-12-12)
Job growth in the United States has slowed considerably this year. We examine the effect of tariffs on job growth and argue that sectors with higher exposure to imports had greater reductions in hiring. Tariffs therefore could have reduced job growth, though there is considerable uncertainty about the effect.
Economic Bulletin