Search Results
Journal Article
Social Security private accounts: a risky proposition?
In the ongoing debate over Social Security, private accounts have been recommended as one part of the resolution of the funding difficulties the system faces in coming years. This article discusses what private accounts can and cannot do for individuals who choose to use them and for future Social Security deficits. ; Under current proposals, private accounts would give account holders personal ownership rights and could be willed to heirs at death. Most proposals would limit the range of assets that can be held but would permit account owners to determine their investments based on personal ...
Working Paper
Why do banks promise to pay par on demand?
We survey the theories of why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence about the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision, asymmetric information, legal restrictions, and a medium of exchange. We assume that it is not zero cost to make a promise to redeem a liability at par value on demand. If so, then the conditions in the theories that result in par redemption are possible explanations of why ...
Journal Article
Are money growth and inflation still related?
Despite the long history and the substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that persistent changes in the price level are associated with changes in the money supply, the predicted association remains dis-puted. Is it debated because the empirical relationship holds over time periods so long that it may be uninformative for practitioners and policymakers, who are more concerned about inflation next month or next year? If it takes a generation for the relationship between money growth and inflation to become apparent, it would not be surprising that central bankers and practitioners put ...
Journal Article
Wildcat banking, banking panics, and free banking in the United States
Banks in the United States issued currency with no oversight of any kind by the federal goverment from 1837 to 1865. Many of these banks were part of "free banking" systems with no discretionary approval of entry into banking, and these banks issued notes that were used for payments in transactions just as Federal Reserve notes are today. There was no central bank or goverment insurance, and the ultimate guarantee of the value of a bank's notes was the value of the bank's assets. As the author indicates, these banknotes have similarities to some forms of electronic money. ; Free banking in ...
Working Paper
International money and common currencies in historical perspective
The authors review the history of international monies and the theory related to their adoption and use. There are four key characteristics of these currencies: high unitary value; relatively low inflation rates for long periods; issuance by major economic and trading powers; and spontaneous, as opposed to planned, adoption internationally. The economic theory of the demand for money provides support for the importance of these characteristics. The value of a unit is arbitrary for a fiat money, but the other characteristics are likely to be important for determining any fiat money that will ...
Journal Article
Is money irrelevant?
Conference Paper
Vintage and credit rating: what matters in the ABX data during the credit crunch?
The mortgage backed securities market has dramatically declined during the credit crunch of 2007-2008. To understand the factors driving its demise we utilise a latent factor model representing common effects, asset rating effects, vintage of issuance effects and liquidity effects - extending the recent representation of CDO pricing in Longstaff and Rajan (2008). Common and liquidity effects are shown to have an increasing influence on the performance of the ABX-HE indices, with the role of vintage factors changing dramatically over the sample period of January 2006 to May 2008. Consistent ...
Working Paper
Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth?
We examine the connection between the creation of stock exchanges and economic growth with a new set of data on economic growth that spans a longer time period than generally available. We find that economic growth increases relative to the rest of the world after a stock exchange opens. Our evidence indicates that increased growth of productivity is the primary way that a stock exchange increases the growth rate of output, rather than an increase in the growth rate of physical capital. We also find that financial deepening is rapid before the creation of a stock exchange and slower ...
Journal Article
Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings
The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month ...
Working Paper
How important are capital and total factor productivity for economic growth?
The authors examine the relative importance of the growth of physical and human capital and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using newly organized data on 145 countries that span more than one hundred years for twenty-four of these countries. For all countries, only 3 percent of average output growth per worker is associated with TFP growth. This world average masks interesting variations across countries and regions. Of the nine regions, TFP growth accounts for about twenty percent of average output growth in three regions and between ten and zero percent in the other three ...