Working Paper
Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier
Karabarbounis, Marios; Dupor, Bill; Mehkari, M. Saif; Kudlyak, Marianna (2018-12-26)
We use regional variation in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009-2012) to analyze the effect of government spending on consumer spending. Our consumption data come from household-level retail purchases in the Nielsen scanner data and auto purchases from Equifax credit balances. We estimate that a $1 increase in county-level government spending increases local non-durable consumer spending by $0.29 and local auto spending by $0.09. We translate the regional consumption responses to an aggregate fiscal multiplier using a multiregional, New Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-04

Working Paper
Increasing returns and optimal oscillating labor supply
Lehnert, Andreas; Dupor, Bill (2002)
Models featuring increasing returns to scale in at least one factor of production have been used to study two separate phenomena: (1) multiplicity of self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria (i.e. sunspots), and (2) production schedules that optimally feature bunching. We show in a continuous-time model with increasing returns to labor (IRL) that if the economy features multiple competitive equilibria, the optimal path of investment, employment and consumption cannot be constant, or even smoothly-varying. Any macroeconomic policies that shielded the economy from sunspot fluctuations ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-22

Journal Article
Why the 2009 Recovery Act Didn’t Improve the Nation's Highways
Garton, Jack; Dupor, Bill (2017)
Little of the Recovery Act's highway funds were actually spent on improving highways.
Economic Synopses , Issue 14 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Liftoff and the Natural Rate of Interest
Dupor, Bill (2015)
The natural rate is viewed in some circles as a useful concept for the FOMC in setting the federal funds rate.
Economic Synopses , Issue 12

Journal Article
Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession
Dupor, Bill (2019-07-05)
The auto sector continues to play an important role in understanding recessions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 16

Journal Article
The Cyclicality of the Aging U.S. Motor Vehicle Fleet
Dupor, Bill (2019-12-13)
More-reliable cars may have contributed to the slow rebound of auto sales and jobs after the past recession.
Economic Synopses , Issue 26

Journal Article
Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated, and Severe Viral Outbreaks
Dupor, Bill (2020-03-17)
What should guide a fiscal authority in conducting macroeconomic policy in the event of a severe viral outbreak?
Economic Synopses , Issue 6

Journal Article
The Recovery Act of 2009 vs. FDR's New Deal: Which Was Bigger?
Dupor, Bill (2017)
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 has been called the federal government's largest economic recovery plan. But what about the New Deal? Depending on how the comparison is framed, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's plan could have been costlier than President Barack Obama's.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Journal Article
Government Spending Might Not Create Jobs Even during Recessions
Dupor, Bill; Rodrigo, Guerrero (2016-07)
A review of government spending over 120 years seems to show little, if any, impact on job creation. The result is the same whether the economy is in a recession or not.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
Stimulus Spending Had Spillover Effects, Thanks to Commuters
Dupor, Bill (2015-10)
The federal stimulus spending in one county increased employment and wage payments two to three counties away, the authors found in a study of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The spending spilled over as long as the geographic areas were sufficiently connected, as measured by commuting patterns.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct