Search Results
Journal Article
Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions
Past experience has led financial market participants to believe that future interest rates will be closely related to the performance of the economy. If so, the shape of the yield curve ought to summarize the implicit economic forecasts of a broad range of bond traders. Previous research has demonstrated that, relative to carefully tailored forecasting variables such as the index of leading indicators, the yield curve is an excellent predictor of recessions. In this article, Michael Dueker shows that the predictive power of the yield curve does not diminish when examined in the context of ...
Journal Article
The FOMC in 1996: \\"watchful waiting\\"
In light of recent research findings, Michael J. Dueker and Andreas M. Fischer review the 1996 policy posture of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. They find several areas in which the FOMC's policy positions were consistent with the conclusions of recent research studies, whether or not these studies directly influenced the Committee's thinking. In general, the authors conclude that the FOMC intended to ensure that inflation was contained near 3 percent in 1996 but did not intend to bring down the trend rate of inflation ...
Journal Article
Open mouth operations: a Swiss case study
Journal Article
FOMC decisions and bond market uncertainty
Journal Article
Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?
Ten years of empirical studies of inflation targeting have not uncovered clear evidence that monetary policy that incorporates formal targets imparts better inflation performance. The authors survey the literature and find that the "no difference" verdict concerning inflation targeting has been robust to a wide range of countries and methods of analysis, starting with a study by Dueker and Fischer (1996a). The authors present updated Markov-switching estimates from the original Dueker and Fischer (1996a) article and show that their early conclusions about inflation targeting among early ...
Journal Article
The response of market interest rates to discount rate changes
Journal Article
Risk premiums among corporate bonds
Journal Article
Argentina Agonistes
Working Paper
Identifying Austria's implicit monetary target: an alternative test of the "hard currency" policy
One simple test of the long-run viability of an exchange-rate peg, which complements tests based on market expectations, is to ask whether the implicit inflation target ofthe pegging country is the same as that of the anchor country. If the implicit inflation targets of the two countries are different, the peg's long-run credibility can be rejected. The implicit inflation target is defined as the policy-implied, trend rate of inflation. The proposed test is applied to the Austrian experience with a 'hard currency' policy aimed at targeting its exchange rate with the Deutsche mark.