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Working Paper
The interest sensitivity of GDP and accurate Reg Q measures
Duca, John V. (1995)
Working Papers , Paper 9513

Journal Article
From complacency to crisis: financial risk taking in the early 21st century
DiMartino, Danielle; Rosenblum, Harvey; Duca, John V. (2007)
During the first half of this decade, the belief that new financial products would adequately shield investors from risk encouraged financial flows to less creditworthy households and businesses. By late 2006, U.S. financial markets were flashing warning signals of a potential financial crisis. ; In a sign that investors had become too complacent, risk premiums had all but vanished in junk bond and emerging-market interest rate spreads. Then, conditions changed abruptly. In the important and usually stable market for asset-backed commercial paper, premiums on three-month paper over Treasury ...
Economic Letter , Volume 2

Journal Article
Making sense of elevated housing prices
Duca, John V. (2005-09)
Southwest Economy , Issue Sep , Pages 1, 7-13

Report
Nationally, Housing Recovery Finally Gains Traction
Duca, John V. (2013)
U.S. housing markets experienced a notable boom and a painful bust during the past decade. Most recently, housing began its long-awaited recovery?the subject of the Dallas Fed?s 2013 Annual Report. In three essays, widely recognized housing expert and associate director of research John Duca shares insights on the national and regional markets and the outlook for housing.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Tobin lives: integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models
Muellbauer, John N.; Duca, John V. (2013)
After the global financial crisis, there is greater awareness of the need to understand the interactions between the financial sector and the real economy and hence the potential for financial instability. Data from the financial flow of funds, previously relatively neglected, are now seen as crucial to the data monitoring carried out by central banks. This paper revisits earlier efforts to understand financial-real linkages, such those of Tobin and the Yale School, and proposes a modeling framework for analysing the household flow of funds jointly with consumption. The consumption function ...
Working Papers , Paper 1307

Working Paper
Equity Regulation and U.S. Venture Capital Investment
Atkinson, Tyler; Duca, John V. (2017-08-23)
There is a growing consensus that the long-run per capita growth rate of the U.S. economy has drifted lower since the early 2000s, consistent with a perceived slowdown in business dynamism. One factor that may have contributed to this is a downshift in venture capital investment and its failure to recover in line with stock prices, as pre-2003 patterns would suggest. Critics have argued that this is associated with the increased regulatory burden for publically traded firms to comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). There is inconclusive evidence of SOX deterring firms from becoming ...
Working Papers , Paper 1707

Journal Article
The rise and fall of subprime mortgages
DiMartino, Danielle; Duca, John V. (2007)
After booming the first half of this decade, U.S. housing activity has retrenched sharply. Single-family building permits have plunged 52 percent and existing-home sales have declined 30 percent since their September 2005 peaks. ; A rise in mortgage interest rates that began in the summer of 2005 contributed to the housing market's initial weakness. By late 2006, though, some signs pointed to renewed stability. They proved short-lived as loan-quality problems sparked a tightening of credit standards on mortgages, particularly for newer and riskier products. As lenders cut back, housing ...
Economic Letter , Volume 2

Working Paper
Why Has U.S. Stock Ownership Doubled Since the Early 1980s? Equity Participation Over the Past Half Century
Duca, John V.; Walker, Mark (2022-11-18)
The U.S. stock ownership rate doubled between 1983 and 2001 but remains below predictions of some equity participation models. Consistent with calibration studies by Heaton and Lucas (2000) and Gomes and Michaelides (2005), mutual fund costs and indicators of background labor risk are significantly related to stock ownership over 1964-2019. Coefficient estimates and continuous data on driving variables can be used to create a continuous proxy for stock ownership, which could help researchers gauge the effects of shocks that are transmitted via equity participation. Typically omitted asset ...
Working Papers , Paper 2222

Journal Article
The rise of mutual funds
Duca, John V. (2001-01)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 1, 6-8

Journal Article
Firm churn on Main Street and Wall Street
Duca, John V. (2000-03)
Southwest Economy , Issue Mar , Pages 6-9

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