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Working Paper
Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation
We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters New Keynesian model (Smets and Wouters, 2007), allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital, and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.52 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around -0.42. The multiplier is sensitive to the fraction of transfers given to credit-constrained households, the duration of the zero lower bound, and the capital. The stimulus ...
Working Paper
Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help?
Several structural developments in the U.S. economy—including lower neutral interest rates and a flatter Phillips curve—have challenged the ability of the current monetary policy framework to deliver on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) dual-mandate goals. This paper explores whether makeup strategies, in which policymakers seek to stabilize average inflation around the inflation target over some horizon, could strengthen the FOMC’s ability to fulfill its dual mandate. The quantitative analysis discussed here suggests that credible makeup strategies may provide some moderate ...
Journal Article
Just How Important Are New Businesses?
New businesses are major job generators, so disappointing trends in firm formation have raised concern. Thorsten Drautzburg discusses why at least some of the worry might be misplaced.
Journal Article
Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles
Economists are like doctors, not soothsayers. They can't predict recessions, but they can help us understand why one is happening. And that can make all the difference for policymaking.
Journal Article
Make-up Strategies for Monetary Policy
How the Federal Reserve is addressing the challenge of the long-term decline in interest rates.
Journal Article
Politics and Income Distribution
We take a closer look at how political reforms affect labor’s share of national income.
Journal Article
Bad Times, Bad Health
Why do more people report being in poor health during a recession? The link between the two might be stress.
Working Paper
Polarized Contributions but Convergent Agendas
In a canonical model of policy formation, campaign contributions, and electoral competition, we show that, despite donor polarization, candidates’ agendas converge. If purely office-motivated candidates move away from the centrist agenda, they increase their opponents’ contributions more than their own. An extension that introduces a “job ladder” for the candidates leads to candidates caring about absolute levels of campaign contributions and generates divergence of political agendas in equilibrium. We provide empirical evidence of campaign contributions affecting candidates’ ...
Working Paper
The Health Channel of Business Cycles
We document that economic contractions causally worsen health among working-age adults and that poor health predicts negative labor market outcomes. These findings reveal a health channel of business cycles. To quantify its magnitude, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets where agents differ in their health, labor productivity, and wealth. The health channel captures the two-way feedback between pure health shocks — which raise the risk of downward health transitions — and other aggregate shocks, namely, demand and productivity. Our novel estimation strategy ...
Working Paper
A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model
This version: March 28, 2016 First version: February 2014 {{p}} Structural DSGE models are used both for analyzing policy and the sources of business cycles. Conclusions based on full structural models are, however, potentially affected by misspecification. A competing method is to use partially identified VARs based on narrative shocks. This paper asks whether both approaches agree. First, I show that, theoretically, the narrative VAR approach is valid in a class of DSGE models with Taylor-type policy rules. Second, I quantify whether the two approaches also agree empirically, that is, ...