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Journal Article
Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience
Most emerging capital markets in recent years adopted a system that narrowly pegs their currencies? exchange rates to the U.S. dollar. While such a system has a number of advantages, it makes a country vulnerable to shocks in mobile international capital markets and can lead to reactive strategies that can drive the country into a currency crisis and inflationary recession. ; This article aims to construct an early warning system for international currency crises using financial variables reflecting investors? expectations and banking distress, which are highly sensitive to changes in the ...