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Working Paper
The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows
Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984–2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to noncollege workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from nonemployment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from nonemployment into manual work ...