Search Results
Working Paper
Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods
In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or ...
Conference Paper
Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis
Using loan-level data, we analyze the quality of subprime mortgage loans by adjusting their performance for differences in borrower characteristics, loan characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions. We find that the quality of loans deteriorated for six consecutive years before the crisis and that securitizers were, to some extent, aware of it. We provide evidence that the rise and fall of the subprime mortgage market follows a classic lending boom-bust scenario, in which unsustainable growth leads to the collapse of the market. Problems could have been detected long before the crisis, but ...
Working Paper
Moving to a job: The role of home equity, debt, and access to credit
Using credit report data from two of the three major credit bureaus in the United States, we infer with high certainty whether households move to other labor markets defined by metropolitan areas. We estimate how moving patterns relate to labor market conditions, personal credit, and homeownership using panel regressions with fixed effects which control for all constant individual-specific traits. We interpret the patterns through simulations of a dynamic model of consumption, housing, and location choice. We find that homeowners with negative home equity move more than other homeowners, in ...
Working Paper
Gains from financial integration in the European union: evidence for new and old members
We estimate potential welfare gains from financial integration and corresponding better insurance against country-specific shocks to output (risk sharing) for the twenty-five European Union countries. Using theoretical utility-based measures we express the gains from risk sharing as the utility equivalent of a permanent increase in consumption. We report positive potential welfare gains for all the EU countries if they move toward full risk sharing. Ten country-members who joined the Union in 2004 have more volatile or counter-cyclical consumption and output and would obtain much higher ...
Journal Article
Banking deregulation helps small business owners stabilize their income
Once banking markets were opened up to geographic diversity and competition, more banks were in a better position to lend money to small businesses-even in tough times.
Journal Article
Quick exits of subprime mortgages
All holders of mortgage contracts, regardless of type, have three options: keep their payments current, prepay (usually through refinancing), or default on the loan. The latter two options terminate the loan. The termination rates of subprime mortgages that originated each year from 2001 through 2006 are surprisingly similar: about 20, 50, and 80 percent, respectively, at one, two, and three years after origination. For loans originated when house prices appreciated the most, terminations were dominated by prepayments. For loans originated when the housing market slowed, defaults dominated. ...
Journal Article
Income inequality: time for predatory lending laws?
States that have adopted laws against such lending had higher than average levels of income inequality over the past 10 years than did states that didn't pass such laws.
Journal Article
Your credit score is a ranking, not a score
With credit scores affecting so many important aspects of our lives, it?s no wonder that people are concerned with improving their scores. Once they start to pay attention to them, though, consumers often find their scores changing in unpredictable ways. Knowing that your score is not a rating of your creditworthiness but a measure of where your creditworthiness ranks relative to everyone else is the first step in understanding your score and how to manage it.
Journal Article
Ten myths about subprime mortgages
On close inspection many of the most popular explanations for the subprime crisis turn out to be myths. Empirical research shows that the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and its magnitude were more complicated than mortgage interest rate resets, declining underwriting standards, or declining home values. Nor were its causes unlike other crises of the past. The subprime crisis was building for years before showing any signs and was fed by lending, securitization, leveraging, and housing booms.
Working Paper
U.S. banking deregulation and self-employment: a differential impact on those in need
Starting in 1978, the U.S. banking sector was gradually deregulated in terms of restrictions on geographical expansion. This paper examines the impact of intrastate branching deregulation on (state-specific) self-employment income growth rate. If postreform changes in the banking structure led to improved lending to previously underserved (potential) businessmen, their self-employment income would accelerate, as banks are the prime source of finance for self-employment. Based on a simple model adopted from Evans and Jovanovic (1989), it is hypothesized that banking deregulation would ...