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Report
Tax buyouts
Perri, Fabrizio; Schivardi, Fabiano; Del Negro, Marco (2010)
The paper studies a fiscal policy instrument that can reduce fiscal distortions, without affecting revenues, in a politically viable way. The instrument is a private contract (tax buyout), offered by the government to each individual citizen, whereby the citizen can choose to pay a fixed price up front in exchange for a given reduction in her tax rate for a prespecified period of time. We consider a dynamic overlapping-generations economy, calibrated to match several features of the U.S. income and wealth distribution, and show that, under simple pricing, the introduction of the buyout is ...
Staff Reports , Paper 467

Report
Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich
Del Negro, Marco; Diagne, Ibrahima; Dogra, Keshav; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Pacula, Brian (2025-04-01)
We use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth. Consumption for the rich is mostly affected by demand shocks via their exposure to highly procyclical profits—for them, stabilizing consumption and inflation coincide. The poor are more vulnerable to supply shocks, hence aggressively stabilizing inflation is costly in terms of their consumption volatility. While they dislike inflation because it erodes real wages, they are hurt even more by an aggressive ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1147

Discussion Paper
Forecasting with the FRBNY DSGE Model
Tambalotti, Andrea; Eusepi, Stefano; Sbordone, Argia M.; Giannoni, Marc; De Paoli, Bianca; Del Negro, Marco (2014-09-22)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) has built a DSGE model as part of its efforts to forecast the U.S. economy. On Liberty Street Economics, we are publishing a weeklong series to provide some background on the model and its use for policy analysis and forecasting, as well as its forecasting performance. In this post, we briefly discuss what DSGE models are, explain their usefulness as a forecasting tool, and preview the forthcoming pieces in this series.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140922

Discussion Paper
Choosing the Right Policy in Real Time (Why That’s Not Easy)
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank; Hasegawa, Raiden B. (2015-03-25)
As an economist, you make policy recommendations at any point in time that depend on what model of the economy you have in mind and on your assessment of the state of the economy. One can see these points play out in the current discussion about the timing of interest rate liftoff and the speed of the subsequent renormalization. If you think nominal rigidities are not all that important, you are likely to conclude that accommodative policies won’t do much for growth but will generate inflation. Similarly, if you are convinced that the economy is already firing on all cylinders, you may see ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150325

Discussion Paper
Tax buyouts: raising government revenue without distorting work decisions
Perri, Fabrizio; Schivardi, Fabiano; Del Negro, Marco (2010)
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 10-4

Discussion Paper
A History of SOMA Income
Bukhari, Meryam; Del Negro, Marco; Cambron, Alyssa; Remache, Julie (2013-08-13)
Historically, the Federal Reserve has held mostly interest-bearing securities on the asset side of its balance sheet and, up until 2008, mostly currency on its liability side, on which it pays no interest. Such a balance sheet naturally generates income, which is almost entirely remitted to the U.S. Treasury once operating expenses and statutory dividends on capital are paid and sufficient earnings are retained to equate surplus capital to capital paid in. The financial crisis that began in late 2007 prompted a number of changes to the balance sheet. First, the asset side of the balance sheet ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130813

Report
Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank (2008-03-01)
This paper discusses prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and provides a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of these parameters from beliefs about the moments of the endogenous variables. The empirical application studies the role of price and wage rigidities in a New Keynesian DSGE model and finds that standard macro time series cannot discriminate among theories that differ in the quantitative importance of nominal frictions.
Staff Reports , Paper 320

Working Paper
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Grasing, Jamie; Rosa, Carlo; Frame, W. Scott; Malin, Benjamin A.; Cavallo, Michele; Del Negro, Marco (2018-01-05)
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Working Papers , Paper 747

Working Paper
Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank (2002)
This paper uses a simple New Keynesian monetary DSGE model as a prior for a vector autoregression and shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting and can be used for policy analysis.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2002-14

Discussion Paper
The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast
Eusepi, Stefano; Cocci, Matthew; Shahanaghi, Sara; Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco (2014-09-26)
The U.S. economy has been in a gradual but slow recovery. Will the future be more of the same? This post presents the current forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) DSGE model, described in our earlier “Bird’s Eye View” post, and discusses the driving forces behind the forecasts. Find the code used for estimating the model and producing all the charts in this blog series here. (We should reiterate that these are not the official New York Fed staff forecasts, but only an input to the overall forecasting process at the Bank.)
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140926

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