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Working Paper
Economic outcomes of working-age people with disabilities over the business cycle: an examination of the 1980s and 1990s
Nargis, Nigar; Daly, Mary C.; Houtenville, Andrew J.; Burkhauser, Richard V. (2001)
We examine the rate of employment and the household income of the working-age population (aged 25-61) with and without disabilities over the business cycles of the 1980s and 1990s using data from the March Current Population Survey and the National Health Interview Survey. In general, we find that while the employment of working-age men and women with and without disabilities exhibited a procyclical trend during the 1980s business cycle, this was not the case during the 1990s expansion. During the 1990s, the employment of working-age men and women without disabilities continued to be ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2001-07

Working Paper
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Hobijn, Bart; Bosler, Canyon (2016-07-11)
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong?defying nearly all earlier projections?and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-14

Journal Article
A new look at the distributional effects of economic growth during the 1980s: a comparative study of the United States and Germany
Crews, Amy D.; Daly, Mary C.; Burkhauser, Richard V. (1997)
Beginning in 1983, and following the worst recession since the Great Depression, the United States experienced six years of uninterrupted economic growth, the longest such period since World War II. Along with this expansion came an increase in income inequality that many suggest diminished the middle class and made the United States unique among industrialized nations in its pace of economic growth and increase in income equality. This paper addresses these issues by using kernel density estimation to document changes in the United States income distribution during the 1980s economic ...
Economic Review

Journal Article
The Last Resort in a Changing Landscape
Daly, Mary C. (2021-05-03)
As lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve plays a vital role in maintaining a sound and stable financial system. But the frequency and scale of Fed interventions following disruptions like the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 are concerning. As the country emerges from the pandemic, it’s time to focus on crafting more resilient policies, particularly by addressing Treasury market vulnerabilities and providing greater prudential oversight.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 12 , Pages 01-07

Speech
Choose and Choose Again
Daly, Mary C. (2022-05-16)
Speech to the College of Western Idaho Commencement Ceremony, Boise, ID, May 16, 2025, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
East Asia's effect on the Twelfth District
Daly, Mary C. (1998)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
Version Two
Daly, Mary C. (2024-05-17)
Commencement speech to the University of San Francisco School of Management, San Francisco, CA, May 17, 2024, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

Journal Article
Relative comparisons and economics: empirical evidence
Daly, Mary C.; Wilson, Daniel J. (2007)
This Letter reviews the empirical evidence on the extent to which individuals' sense of well-being or happiness is related to metrics of the well-being of others.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
Daly, Mary C. (2022-04-22)
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Regional growth and resilience: evidence from urban IT centers
Gerst, Jeremy; Daly, Mary C.; Doms, Mark (2009)
After being emblematic of the U.S. economic surge in the late 1990s, urban areas that specialize in information technology (IT) products struggled in the aftermath of the IT spending bust, with most experiencing deeper and longer periods of economic decline than the nation as a whole. Seven years later, most have recovered, but only a few have regained the prominence of earlier years. In this paper, we consider the rise, the fall, and the recovery of urban IT centers and distinguish between the factors leading to temporary gains and those contributing to a more lasting growth path. ...
Economic Review

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