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Working Paper
Earnings mobility and instability, 1969-1995
We study earnings mobility and instability using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our main contribution is to update mobility and instability calculations to include data from the 1990s, although we also provide a number of tests of robustness across mobility and instability indicators and sample definition. All in all, we find few trends in earnings instability since the 1970s, particularly among younger workers. However, we find no evidence that instability continued to increase throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. With regard to mobility, we find greater upward mobility ...
Working Paper
Optimal indicators of socioeconomic status for health research
Objectives: This paper examines the relationship between various measures of SES and mortality for a representative sample of individuals. ; Methods: Data are from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Sample includes 3,734 individuals aged 45 and above who participated in the 1984 interview. Mortality was tracked between 1984 and 1994 and is related to SES indicators using Cox event-history regression models. ; Results: Wealth has the strongest associations with subsequent mortality, and these associations differ little by age and sex. Other economic measures, especially family-size-adjusted ...
Report
Does college matter?
A series of essays authored by San Francisco Fed President and CEO John C. Williams, Senior Vice President and Associate Director of Research Mary C. Daly, Research Associate Yifan Cao, and Senior Economic Education Manager Jody Hoff, argue that the answer to the questions 'Does college matter?' is a resounding yes.
Report
Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams
Changes in demographics, and in employer and worker needs, have redefined the U.S. labor market. We discuss the "new normal" in our 2015 annual report, What We've Learned?and why it matters. Observations include how the gig economy?or sharing economy?is affecting the part-time workforce. We also look at influences on labor force participation rates and clarify the math behind sluggish wage growth. A consideration for both is the retirement of higher-earning baby boomers and the increase in steady employment for lower-wage workers.
Journal Article
Dynamic Central Bank Communication
Central banks have a responsibility to share information in ways that improve the public’s understanding. This communication must be consistent enough that people can follow, and dynamic enough that it can adjust to the circumstances that are faced. Federal Reserve communications over the past 30 years have evolved to become significantly more transparent. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference in San Francisco on June 22.
Journal Article
Steady Through Change: In Policy, Business, and Life
Moving steadily through change takes intention, commitment to one’s goals, collecting evidence, and deciding. And most of all, it takes a commitment to be willing to repeat the process of anchoring, assessing, and deciding each time a new change comes along. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation at the David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, on September 24.
Journal Article
Modern Central Banking: Monetary Policy Implementation and Communication
Central banks set policy to support the economy, provide liquidity, and promote financial stability. Modern central banking requires adaptation to current demands and a framework that fosters agility and readiness. Accordingly, central banks have used their balance sheets as policy tools over the past two decades. These tools demand clear communication to the public. The following is adapted from remarks presented by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland, on November 13.
Journal Article
The AI Moment? Possibilities, Productivity, and Policy
AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations take time. We need to look for early indicators in the data and in business to get monetary policy right. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and San Jose State University in San Jose, California, on February 17.
Journal Article
Regionalism at the Federal Reserve: Many Voices, One Purpose
Public institutions like the Federal Reserve must evolve to meet new challenges and allow for new possibilities. At the Fed, we have modernized and innovated over time, always grounding ourselves in our founding principles—to be regional in our work, independent in our thinking, and accountable to those we serve. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce, in St. George, Utah, on April 8.
Journal Article
Profile of a recession - the U.S. and California