Working Paper
Multinational firms' entry and productivity: some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity
Contessi, Silvio (2015-09-01)
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MNFs) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNFs entry and production, I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNFs sort according to their own productivity. The entry and production of MNFs contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates and affect domestic producers through ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 248

Working Paper
Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets
De Pace, Pierangelo; Contessi, Silvio; Guidolin, Massimo (2017-08-01)
We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of seven U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and January 2015. We find statistically significant evidence of such behavior in six of these spreads. Mild explosivity migrates from short-term funding markets to more volatile medium- and long-term markets during the Great Financial Crisis. For some markets, we statistically validate the conjecture, originally suggested by Gorton (2009a,b), that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 324

Journal Article
Sovereign debt shadows
Contessi, Silvio (2010)
All five peripheral EU countries face burdensome public debt and budget deficits, but the causes for uncertainty in each country?s situation differ.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
The evolving size distribution of banks
Contessi, Silvio (2010)
If limiting the size of large banks were considered appropriate to reduce systemic risk, it would be a clear change of direction relative to the long-term evolution of the industry.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Are bank reserves and bank lending connected?
Contessi, Silvio (2011)
As long as the strength of the recovery remains uncertain, there are few other investment opportunities, after adjusting for risk and taxes, with anticipated returns greater than the near-zero interest the Federal Reserve pays on deposits.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Get by with a little help from my…other exports
Contessi, Silvio; Li, Li (2012)
The European debt crisis could certainly affect the U.S. economy through other channels?but its direct impact on U.S. exports is likely to be small.>
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Rent or buy?
Contessi, Silvio; Li, Li (2013)
The residential real estate market showed additional signs of improvement in 2012, though the recovery has been quite different for single-family compared with multifamily markets.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
From "man-cession" to "he-covery": same old, same old
Contessi, Silvio; Li, Li (2013)
The male labor force was hit harder during the recent recession because more jobs were lost in occupations and sectors that traditionally employ more men.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Forward guidance 101B: a roadmap of the international experience
Contessi, Silvio; Li, Li (2013)
The Federal Reserve is just one of several central banks that have adopted forward guidance since the beginning of the financial crisis and in an environment of near-zero policy rates (zero lower bound).
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Foreign direct investment in the United States during the financial crisis
Contessi, Silvio; Li, Li (2012)
FDI flows from overseas parent companies contracted, but intracompany debt and reinvested earnings were affected much more than equity FDI.>
Economic Synopses